The charters have left, but airfreight capacity between Asia and North America is still up from a year ago as Asian carriers have beefed up their scheduled freighter operations across the Pacific. Europe, on the other hand, offers a bleak outlook for all-cargo operators.

February and March saw freighters flock to the transpacific arena in order to cope with the surge in demand caused by the problems at US West Coast ports, which forced shippers to divert their cargo from ocean to air. The boost in demand even benefited European carrier Lufthansa, which put on extra sections to move cargo from Asia over Europe to North America.

By late April, the backlogs had largely disappeared – and with them, the charters – but scheduled freighter capacity from Asia to North America is still up.

Cathay Pacific is now running 37 weekly freighter runs across the Pacific, and its management envisages stepping up its capacity further still.

“As we build to the peak we hope to squeeze out utilization to the 42 and even-higher per week mark,” said Mark Sutch, general manager of cargo sales and marketing. “We are confident we can fill these. Load factors eastbound on freighters are extremely high,” he added.

Westbound demand out of the US has also shown signs of improvement, although yields are still modest at best. “Westbound ex-USA has always been a challenge, but in reality, we are doing better than ever,” reported Sutch, although load factors remain well below the eastbound equivalents, he added.

This tallies with observations of a US-based airline cargo general sales agent, who reported strong demand for lift to China. “A lot is fuelled by e-commerce,” he said.

In 2012, Cathay was operating 26-28 frequencies a week across the Pacific, while European freighter frequencies had plummeted from a high of 32 the year before to 14-16 a week.

The view from Asia to the European trade lane remains dim. Sluggish demand from Asia to Europe, coupled with fierce competition, are expected to keep the lid on capacity increases to Europe, and the weaker Euro translates into lower results for Asian carriers from their European revenues.

“Asia-Europe has collapsed. Most Chinese carriers have shifted capacity across to transpacific routes,” the cargo GSA said. He added that the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar has remained stable, whereas the Euro’s weakness threatens to hurt flows into Europe further.

Airport results for the first quarter reflect these developments. Hong Kong International Airport registered 2.8% growth in throughput in the period, while Pudong Air Cargo Terminal, the largest private handler in Shanghai, saw tonnage surge12.7%. At the European end, the picture was different. Frankfurt reported a 2% contraction in volume, and Amsterdam was down 1.8%.

“We have had the US West Coast port congestion issues, which has meant a number of Chinese carriers have moved their aircraft from Europe to North America, said Enno Osinga, senior vice president, cargo at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol.

Lufthansa Cargo, which has remained upbeat on a future need for freighter lift, recently sounded a note of caution when it announced that the construction of its new cargo centre at the carrier’s hub in Frankfurt would be postponed by at least two years.

When it made the announcement, Lufthansa management reiterated its conviction in the future need for freighters. However, it has yet to decide on the possible conversion of options for five B777 freighters into firm orders. The decision, originally slated for this year, was pushed back in March by some 15 months.

Main deck lift from Asia to Europe looks set to shrink further. Malaysia Airlines was due to stop its flights to Frankfurt at the end of May. According to some observers, this will be followed by the demise of the airline’s freighters to Amsterdam,  as MAS is expected to withdraw from European routes altogether and dispose of its freighter fleet in a sweeping restructure that shifts its focus to intra-Asian routes. MAS has lost money in recent years due to fierce competition from other carriers, notably Asian low-cost airlines. Its plight was aggravated by the loss of two B777s, one of them disappearing without a trace on a flight between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing and the other shot down over Ukraine.

By Ian Putzger

Air Freight Correspondent | Toronto