Global air freight demand grew by 3.5% year-on-year in 2018, according to full-year data released by the International Air Transport Association.

The growth of freight tonne kilometres for the year was significantly lower than the 9.7% recorded in 2017.

According to IATA, freight capacity increased by 5.4%, while the load factor fell by 0.9 percentage points.

In December 2018, demand decreased by 0.5% compared to December 2017. This was the worst performance since March 2016 and was the 10th month in a row that year-on-year capacity growth outpaced demand growth.

IATA attributed the year’s weaker performance to a softening of key demand drivers, including the ending of the restocking cycle in early 2018, weakening global economic activity, a contraction of export orders in all major exporting nations except the US in the second half of the year, and weaker consumer confidence.

“Air cargo demand lost momentum towards the end of 2018 in the face of weakening global trade, sagging consumer confidence and geopolitical headwinds,” said Alexandre de Juniac, director general and CEO of IATA. “Still, demand grew by 3.5% compared to 2017. We are cautiously optimistic that demand will grow in the region of 3.7% in 2019. But with the persistence of trade tensions and protectionist actions by some governments there is significant downside risk. Keeping borders open to people and to trade is critical. To attract demand in new market segments, the air cargo industry must improve its value proposition. Enabling modern processes with digitalization will help build a stronger foothold in e-commerce and the transport of time- and temperature-sensitive goods such as pharmaceuticals and perishables.”

Airlines in all regions reported an annual increase in demand in 2018, with the exception of those in Africa.

Asia-Pacific carriers saw the weakest growth in 2018, posting a freight demand increase of just 1.7% compared to 2017. IATA said that this largely reflects a slowing in demand for exports from China, Japan and Korea, the region’s major exporters. Signs of a moderation in economic activity in China and an escalation of trade tensions continue to pose a downside risk to air cargo in the region.

North American airlines posted the fastest growth, with an annual increase in demand of 6.8%. This was due to the strength of the US economy and consumer spending. 

European airlines registered a year-on-year growth in air cargo demand of 3.2% in 2018. This was affected by weaker manufacturing conditions for exporters, particularly in Germany, as well as mixed economic indicators.

Annual growth in freight demand among Latin American carriers increased by 5.8% in 2018, while Middle Eastern carriers saw a year-on-year growth of 3.9% in 2018.

Freight demand among African carriers decreased by 1.3% in 2018, according to IATA.