A sharp rise in air cargo spot rates from European origins, particularly to the Americas, has helped drive up average worldwide spot prices in the second full week of November, according to the latest analysis by WorldACD.

The air cargo market data provider said rates to Brazil rose especially rapidly in the last two weeks, linked to congestion problems at São Paulo's Guarulhos International Airport (GRU).

Buoyant transatlantic market

However, WorldACD noted that the biggest shifts in the last few weeks have been on the westbound transatlantic market, particularly from Europe to the US and to South America.

Europe to the US spot rates recorded consecutive WoW increases of 16% and 17% in weeks 45 and 46, taking them to US$3.34 per kilo – a rise of 48% in five weeks and 36% in only two weeks.

"That reflects a fall in capacity following the start of airlines' winter schedules from October 27, and some demand increases ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on November 28 – but also the fact that cargo load factors on the westbound transatlantic market were already relatively high," WorldACD said.

Meanwhile, average spot rates from Europe to South America have leapt from US$4.32 per kilo in week 44 to US$5.88 in week 46 – a rise of 36%. By far, the biggest increases have been to Brazil, where high levels of congestion at GRU and even a 5-day cargo embargo to November 11 have caused Europe to Brazil spot rates to jump from US$4.19 per kilo in week 44 to US$6.58 in week 46 – a rise of +57%.

Strong but stable Asia Pacific markets

WorldACD said although markets remain relatively strong, including ex-Asia Pacific, good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises from Asia Pacific markets.

Nevertheless, spot prices to Europe from China, Hong Kong, and South Korea all recorded WoW rises of 11%, 5%, and 4% in week 46. But spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US dipped by -4%, WoW, including a 2% drop from China.

WorldACD noted that worldwide average spot prices are 25% above last year's levels (YoY), with Middle East & South Asia still highly elevated (up 73%) and spot rates ex-Asia Pacific up 22%.

Based on a full-market average of spot and contract rates, overall worldwide rates were up 2%, WoW, and 11% higher, YoY.