DHL Global Forwarding said in its latest Ocean Freight Market Update Report that the market may experience volatile ocean rates and surging capacity ahead. 

After brief disruptions at major U.S. ports, volatility is expected to continue with excess capacity, blank sailings and a post-election rush.

In its monthly analysis, DHL noted that freight rates have declined for the past three months from their peak in July and are now rebounding post-Golden Week.

It added that this recent uptick in rates has been attributed to an increasing number of blank sailings for November and strong consumer demand.

Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that despite some contractionary macroeconomic indicators, ocean freight demand held up well through the third quarter.

"We saw a lot of early shipments this year due to supply chain choke points, so we had an early peak season," he said.

"But overall, volumes have been healthy, and we are seeing brisk demand since Golden Week at the start of October," Frank added.

Nonetheless, the report noted "significant uncertainties" that could persist including the risk of strikes on the U.S. East and Gulf coasts if no new agreement is reached between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) by January 15, 2025.

DHL also cited US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, which include a universal tariff of 10-20% on all imports to the US.

There is also continuing risk from frontloading expected due to the early Chinese New Year at the end of January, and prolonged Red Sea diversions.

"With President Trump's victory in the U.S. elections, we have seen increased customer enquiries, especially if they are importing from China. However, it is still too early to say whether this is the trend or only individual customers," Frank said.

Considering additional factors such as growing ship supply and imbalances in backhaul capacity, DHL said the global freight market is "not expected to return to a pre-pandemic level in the immediate future."

The DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Report is a monthly report by DHL Global Forwarding which tracks and analyses the latest developments in the global ocean freight market.