The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said air cargo volumes may not recover as fast as initially expected as international trade remains subdued amidst the ongoing disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. 

IATA made the commentary following the World Trade Organisation's (WTO) latest outlook for the global economy and international merchandise trade.

"The expected fall in trade of 9.2% in 2020 represents an upwards revision compared to the optimistic scenario predicted in April 2020. The anticipated recovery in 2021 was downgraded to 7.2%," IATA said, noting that the global economy is forecast to contract by almost 5% in 2020 then rebound by a similar magnitude in 2021.

IATA stated the rebound in international trade following a sharp recession is typically quite strong. However, the WTO expects trade volumes will remain "well below" the pre-crisis trend for reasons including the adverse impact of the pandemic on employment and incomes, policy responses that have imposed additional debt and supply constraints on economies and the possibility of ongoing international trade tensions.

 IATA said with this "the risks to the outlook are still considered to be firmly to the downside."

IATA, however, noted that air cargo typically recovers more quickly than other modes of transport during a period of economic recovery, as businesses seek to rapidly restock their inventories in response to the pick up in demand though it could come at a slower pace than expected given recent trade developments.

The association stated then that the more subdued recovery expected in international trade highlights the risk that the forecasted rebound in air cargo volumes might also be slower.