ACI World director general Angela Gittens said the impact of COVID-19 may be felt well into 2021, with the expectation of a global recession will "take hold".

The impact of the crisis on ACI World global traffic in February is predominantly driven by the Asia Pacific region, however, March figures are expected to show a more widespread effect.

Gittens said global freight volumes should not be affected to the same extent as passengers in the coming months, though the freight industry is still likely to face major challenges.

The crisis’s impact on figures for the freight industry was not yet as significant, with global volumes declining by -0.5% on a year-over-year basis. The global 12-month rolling average stood at -2.7% by the of February. With what is now known, there appears no likelihood of a rebound in the next months.

“The coming year will pose major challenges for the industry, as travel restrictions and lockdown measures continue to impact the industry. Since we can expect that a global recession will take hold, it is now likely that the impacts of COVID-19 may be felt well into 2021,” Gittens added.

“In February, only data from Asia-Pacific, where the epidemic originally occurred, was showing a major effect on global traffic. We know we will see declines in other regions once March data becomes available, as this is when most of the travel restrictions and national lockdowns started.

Impact on global freight

“The global recession that is starting to take hold due to the crisis will likely create a major demand shock and the current disruptions in supply chains, as well as declines in airline capacity, are likely to also impact the industry negatively," Gittens said.

Driven by a significant downward shift in Asia-Pacific, the domestic freight market was the main loser in February, declining by 9.1%, while the international freight market gained 0.4% during the month. The 12-month rolling average showed the international segment fell by 3.8%.

At the regional level, the decline posted in February was mostly driven by North America and Asia-Pacific, ACI said.  

“The impact of the crisis is unlike anything the industry has ever experienced and requires urgent action by governments to assist the aviation industry," Gittens added.