Cathay Pacific expects to operate approximately 10% of pre-pandemic passenger flight capacity for the rest of 2020 and under 50% for 2021.

Cathay Pacific Group chief customer and commercial officer Ronald Lam said that after studying numerous scenarios, this one is “the most optimistic” that the carrier can responsibly adopt at this moment. 

He noted that the 2020 summer season has been “especially difficult” for the entire aviation industry and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has since downgraded its full-year 2020 passenger traffic forecast to reflect a drop of 66%. It also does not anticipate passenger travel will return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024 and cargo demand remains depressed and is only recovering at a slower-than-expected pace due to capacity constraints.

“Most optimistic” scenario 

“After carefully studying numerous scenarios facing the industry and our airlines, we expect we will be operating approximately 10% of our pre-pandemic passenger flight capacity for the rest of 2020 and under 50% for overall 2021,” Lam said.

“Among the multiple scenarios studied, this one is already the most optimistic that we can responsibly adopt at this moment. We assume we will be operating well below a quarter of pre-pandemic capacity in the first half of next year but will see a recovery in the second half of the year – only assuming the vaccines currently under development prove to be effective and are widely adopted in our key markets by summer 2021,” he added.

The Cathay Pacific Group released its combined traffic figures for September that continued to reflect the airlines’ substantial capacity reductions in response to significantly reduced demand as well as travel restrictions and quarantine requirements in place in Hong Kong and other markets amid the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic.

Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon carried 98.1% fewer passengers in September this year compared to the same period in 2019. 

The two airlines carried 109,453 tonnes of cargo and mail last month, declining by 36.6% compared to September 2019 as last month’s revenue freight tonne-kilometres (RFTKs) also dropped by 30.4% year-on-year.

The cargo and mail load factor increased by 9.8 percentage points to 75.3%, while capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs), was down by 39.5%.

In the first nine months of 2020, Cathay said the tonnage fell by 33.9% against a 34.9% drop in capacity and a 26.9% decrease in RFTKs, as compared to the same period for 2019.

For passenger operations, Cathay said September rounded off what has been “an incredibly difficult summer, traditionally the peak passenger travel season of the year.”

Cargo grows on peak season demand

For cargo, Lam said demand has begun to ramp up across the network as the industry entered the traditional peak season.

“Tonnage carried improved about 7% month-on-month, though this was still substantially below pre-COVID-19 levels. Our freighter fleet schedule has been stepped up and is now operating at peak season levels, with services notably increased on Trans-Pacific routes,” he said, noting that Cathay also operated a greater number of cargo-only passenger flights compared to August – 525 pairs in total – and continued to charter Air Hong Kong flights to complement our freighter and passenger schedules.

“In September, we began uplifting mail for Hongkong Post in our passenger cabins using our reconfigured Boeing 777-300ER “preighters”, which have had some of the Economy Class seats removed to provide additional cargo space. This aircraft was also deployed to run a new, temporary service to Pittsburgh serving the seasonal upsurge in demand.”