The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said data for January 2021 showed that global air cargo demand has returned to pre-COVID levels for the first time since the onset of the crisis.

It said January demand also showed strong month-to-month growth over December 2020 levels.

IATA said global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs*), was up 1.1.% compared to January 2019 and also rose 3% compared to December 2020. All regions saw month-on-month improvement in air cargo demand, and North America and Africa were the strongest performers.

The recovery in global capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), was reversed owing to new capacity cuts on the passenger side. Capacity shrank 19.5% compared to January 2019 and fell 5% compared to December 2020, the first monthly decline since April 2020, it added.

“Air cargo traffic is back to pre-crisis levels and that is some much-needed good news for the global economy. But while there is a strong demand to ship goods, our ability is capped by the shortage of belly capacity normally provided by passenger aircraft” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's director general and CEO.

“That should be a sign to governments that they need to share their plans for a restart so that the industry has clarity in terms of how soon more capacity can be brought online. In normal times, a third of world trade by value moves by air.

de Juniac said high-value commerce is vital to helping restore COVID damaged economies — not to mention the critical role air cargo is playing in distributing lifesaving vaccines that must continue for the foreseeable future.

Conditions favor air cargo growth

Nonetheless, IATA noted that the operating backdrop “remains supportive for air cargo volumes.”

It said conditions in the manufacturing sector remain robust despite new COVID-19 outbreaks that dragged down passenger demand.

The new export orders component of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a leading indicator of air cargo demand – also continued to point to further CTK improvement.

However, IATA said the performance of the metric was less robust compared with Q42020 as COVID-19 resurgence negatively impacted export business in emerging markets. Should this continue or expand to other markers, it could weigh on future air cargo growth.

Regional performance in January 

In its statement, IATA said Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for international air cargo fall 3.2% in January 2021 compared to the same month in 2019 — it rose to mark an improvement from the 4% fall in December.

North American carriers posted an 8.5% year-on-year increase in international demand, also surpassing the 4.4% gain the month prior.

IATA said economic activity in the US continues to recover and its January manufacturing PMIs reached a "record-high," pointing to a supportive business environment for air cargo. 

European carriers saw international cargo demand dip 0.6% in January year-on-year, which also saw an improvement from the 5.6% fall at the end-2020.

IATA noted that Middle Eastern carriers posted a 6% rise in international cargo volumes in January versus the same month in 2019 — topping the year over year gain recorded in December compared to the same month in 2019. It said of the region’s key international routes, Middle East-Asia and Middle East-North America have provided the most significant support. 

Latin American carriers reported a drop of 16.1% in international cargo volumes year-on-year in January, which was already an improvement from the 19% fall in December.

IATA noted that drivers of air cargo demand in Latin America remain relatively less supportive than in the other regions.

African airlines’ cargo demand also soared 22.4% compared to the same month in 2019, eclipsing the 6.3% year-over-year increase for December 2020 driven by robust expansion on the Asia-Africa trade lanes.

IATA noted that because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons to follow are to January 2019 which followed a normal demand pattern.