Airbus expects demand for freighters to continue over the next 20 years amid sustained cargo traffic and fleet update with nearly 70% due for replacement.

The European planemaker said in its 2022 Global Market Forecast for the 2022-2041 period that express air cargo growth is also expected to outpace general air cargo boosted by e-commerce.

"World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,070 aircraft by 2041," Airbus said, noting that there were 2,030 aircraft in-service at the beginning of 2020.

Airbus said 31% of these will stay in service (including 2020 & 2021 deliveries), while 69% will be replaced.

"Demand for 2,440 new-build or converted freighters over 2022-2041," the planemaker added.

The report, published on July 8, anticipates that 990 of these newbuilds or converted freighters will be 10-40 tonne single-aisle aircraft, and 890 will be 40-80 tonne mid-sized widebody aircraft, while 560 will be 80 tonne + large widebody aircraft.

Express air cargo to outpace general air cargo

Airbus said that in 2019, express air cargo made up 17% of the airfreight market, while general air cargo encompassed 83%.

But by 2041, express air cargo, boosted by e-commerce is expected to climb to comprise 25% of the market.

The planemaker added that it expects world air cargo traffic growth of 3.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019-2041.