Demand for freighters is expected to remain robust over the next 20 years and Boeing sees the global freighter fleet expanding by 80% by then.

In its 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the American planemaker said in general, the industry will need more than 41,000 new airplanes by 2041 — 2,800 of them will be additional freighters representing a growth of 80% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

This translates to a 3% average annual fleet growth, Boeing said.

"The CMO forecasts a market value of US$7.2 trillion for new airplane deliveries, with the global fleet increasing by 80% through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels," Boeing said, adding that approximately half of passenger jet deliveries will replace today's models, improving the global fleet's fuel efficiency and sustainability.

In addition, Boeing Global Services added that there will be US$3.6 trillion in demand in its market segments over the same time period, including strong demand for maintenance and modifications such as converted freighters; and digital solutions, among others.

"Robust demand for freighters"

"The CMO also predicts continued robust demand for dedicated freighters to support global supply chains and growing express networks," the planemaker said.

"Carriers will need 2,800 additional freighters overall, including 940 new widebody models in addition to converted narrow-body and widebody freighters over the forecast period," it added.

Based on its projections, Boeing said that most of the demand for new planes will come from Asia.

"Continuing their strong growth story, Asian markets account for roughly 40% of long-term global demand for new airplanes," Boeing said. "Europe and North America each account for just over 20% of demand, with 15% deliveries to other regions.

In terms of freighters, the American planemaker noted that the freighter fleet in the Asia Pacific region is expected to expand larger than any other region and is to forecasted to "become roughly the same size as the North American fleet by the end of the forecast period."

Air cargo traffic to continue to grow

Meanwhile, for the said 20-year period between 2022 and 2041, Boeing forecasts that air cargo traffic, in revenue tonne-kilometers (RTKs), will grow at a 4.1% annual rate, a slight increase from last year's 4% forecast.

The planemaker noted that aside from supply chain disruptions and current shipping woes, supply chain diversification is also likely to increase demand for air cargo.

"The pandemic has highlighted the value of air cargo's speed and reliability as a tool to reduce supply chain risk," Boeing said. "Supply chains with more nodes in the system can profit from the flexibility of air cargo and point-to-point service."

Airbus in its own 2022 Global Market Forecast for the 2022-2041 also set expectations for freighter demand which it said will reach 3,070 by 2041 — with 70% of the current fleet expected to be replaced.

In 2019, the global freighter fleet totaled 2,010 jet airplanes and by the end of 2021, this has grown to 2,250 freighters.