Freightos said in its latest analysis that though rates haven’t responded yet, other signs have started emerging that tightening Panama Canal restrictions are starting to impact the container market.
The operator of a booking and payments platform for international freight noted that Transpacific ocean rates were level to close November and about even with the start of the month, with prices to the West Coast 22% higher than in 2019 and East Coast rates 9% below the 2019 mark.
Nonetheless, two more carriers announced upcoming surcharges for containers transiting the canal due to climbing operational costs, and in addition to a handful of vessels that have already taken alternate routes, THE Alliance announced that three Asia–East Coast services will start rerouting via the Suez Canal.
"The Suez is facing a different set of challenges though, as Houthis in Yemen attacked three more vessels — two bulk carriers, and an OOCL container vessel they determined to have links to Israeli ownership — and a US Navy ship on Sunday," commented Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.
He added that some of the ships were slightly damaged by rocket fire, and the Navy destroyer shot down three approaching drones.
"With the threat focussed on Israel-linked vessels, there has not been a significant impact on vessel flows through the Red Sea yet."
Levine said, however, that there have been a "handful of examples" of Israeli-owned vessels diverting from passage through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in favour of sailing around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, including two car carriers, two container vessels operated by Maersk, and at least one by ZIM.
"US officials are in talks with other countries about setting up a maritime task force to secure this crucial waterway and reduce the growing threat to traffic there," he said.
Meanwhile, in terms of impacts on container rates, ZIM Lines was alone among the carriers in introducing a war risk insurance premium since the start of the war, with Hapag-Lloyd announcing this week new surcharges starting in January for shipments to and from Israel.
"Freightos Data shows that while the average cost per container for Asia – Asia-Mediterranean shipments had increased only 9% by the end of November compared to October, rates from some Chinese origins to Israel climbed between 16% – 36%, suggesting that the war is leading to higher costs for carriers and higher prices for their customers," Levine said.
The Freightos report added that Asia – N. Europe rates ticked up last week, and prices to the Mediterranean increased 12%, with indications that rates are climbing on both lanes on early-month GRIs.
It said the degree to which December's rate increases will stick, though, will depend on the carriers’ ability to reduce capacity to current demand levels.
"That challenge likely won't be short-lived: a recent projection expects Asia – Europe capacity growth to outpace volume growth through 2025, with volumes in 2025 still below 2019 levels," Levine said.
"Though the container market, in general, is dealing with overcapacity, the situation appears particularly acute for Asia – Europe where the record order book has already added 400k TEU of capacity in the past year, compared to a 250k TEU reduction in capacity on the transpacific."
In air cargo, Freightos noted that some observers think the ex-Asia e-commerce-driven bump in air cargo demand could push through until the Lunar New Year in February.
Freightos Air Index data show that China – N. America rates were level but remained elevated at US$6.30/kg last week, with China – N. Europe rates dipping 5% to US$4.24/kg, and transatlantic rates increasing 2% to US$2.14/kg.
