Global travel and data analytics provider, Cirium, said aircraft groundings have now entered a "hibernation phase" with around 13,700 aircraft or 62% of the world's passenger fleet still grounded as of May 4. 

In a statement, Cirium said the in-service fleet of 8,320 aircraft as of May 4 is approximately the same size as that operated in 1993.

However, it noted that more than 2,600 passenger jets have already returned to service since March 1 – and 31% of which is in the China domestic market.

Returning aircraft to service

Cirium noted that the current demand scenario will likely result in premature retirements or ‘part outs’, particularly for stored widebody aircraft built between 2001 and 2005, such as Airbus A340s and Boeing 777s.

The challenge of returning aircraft to service is also magnified by the geographical diversity and number of unique locations in which aircraft are currently parked, it added.

A total of 719 different locations globally are home to one or more single-aisle or twin-aisle passenger jets and more than a fifth of the global in-storage fleet is parked at the top 20 locations, 23% by aircraft units and 27% by aircraft value.

Cirium said only 113 aircraft built between 2001 and 2016 have been stored for over a year, excluding Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft which were grounded before the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are also more than 2,000 stored aircraft built in or before the year 2000, which Cirium said: "may never return to service or could get a second lease of life, albeit as converted freighter aircraft."

Passenger capacity vs demand

Current forward-looking schedule data indicates a global capacity increase from -80% at its peak drop earlier this year to around -20% by the end of June, though airlines are likely to make further adjustments to flight schedules depending on the changing COVID-19 environment.

Cirium said over 30% of capacity has returned in the Chinese domestic market in the last two months, marking a positive sign for short-haul travel recovery as lockdown restrictions in the country are eased.

However, the dramatic drop in capacity globally compared with 2019 remains in stark contrast to the forecast from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in December last year, which projected capacity growth of +4.7% in 2020.

Modest uptick in tracked passenger flights

Cirium said its ‘seven-day prior metric’ shows active aircraft have increased globally by 6%, flight cycles by 14% and hours flown by 13%, compared with a week before on April 27 2020, indicating a positive trend is emerging as some regions begin to ease lockdown measures.

However, year-on-year, active aircraft are down by 72%, flight cycles by 82% and hours flown by 84%, compared with May 6, 2019 (364 days prior.

Aircraft utilization also remains dramatically lower than pre-COVID 19 levels for in-service jets, with single-aisle aircraft usage down 43% on average since the start of year.

Twin-aisle aircraft utilization is faring better, down just 29% on the start of the year, but many of these aircraft are being used for non-scheduled cargo services, it added.