Widebody freighter aircraft such as the Boeing 747-8F still have a key function to play in the air cargo industry, according to manufacturers, lessors and operators alike at the Cargo Facts Asia conference.
“I think it all goes back to demand,” said Daniel da Silva, vice president of modification and conversion services at Boeing. “The role of widebody freighters in general has not fundamentally changed. What has been changing over time are the conditions around it.”
He explained that factors such as a weak economy, low interest rates and high fuel costs would cause the market to be less favourable to widebodies. As an example, he said that this was the case in 2009. However, in 2010, when the market improved by 19%, 27 planes that had been parked in the desert were put back into service within 10 months, he said.
The current conditions are set to improve the operating environment for widebodies, according to da Silva. “We’re seeing fuel prices dampen, and I don’t think interest rates are going to stay this low forever,” he said. “So I think we’re going to go back to a market that demands and requires widebody freighters.”
Andreas Hermann, vice president of asset management and freighters at Airbus, shared a similar view. “I think the role of widebody freighters is essential going forward,” he said. “What has changed is probably the mix of fleet compositions.”
One large operator of widebody freighter aircraft is Atlas Air, which operates 747-400Fs, 747-8Fs, 767-200Fs and 767-300ERFs.
“We’re huge fans of the widebody,” said Graham Perkins, vice president of sales and marketing at Atlas Air. “From our perspective, the aircraft has the ability to serve certain niches – the oil and gas industry, the pharma industry, perishables, and the high-tech manufacturers who are moving away from hubs. I like to think of the 747 as a hub-buster, because manufacturing’s moving away from places where passenger aircraft may be flying point-to-point.”
Perkins gives Zhengzhou – Chicago as an example of a city pair which is not currently served by passenger flights, yet is flown by Atlas at least three times a week using a 747.
The use of dedicated widebody freighter aircraft could potentially be affected by the increasing use of belly space on passenger flights.
“I think the more we see the whole market move to regular, frequent, daily service and the more we see the passenger airlines invest in infrastructure to support the needs of the cargo industry, then belly space is going to be more of an issue,” said Steve Rimmer, CEO of Guggenheim Aviation Partners, an aircraft leasing company. “We’re not there yet, but I think we’ve seen strides towards it.”
Another potential consideration is the conversion of widebody passenger planes, but da Silva said that the combination of cheaper money which is more readily available, lower risk, fuel prices, market demand and types of operations means that the differential between a new and a converted freighter on an ownership level, which used to be “huge,” is now diminished. This should lead to renewed interest from airline customers.
“With the recovery of the market and some campaigns that are ongoing, we’re going to see some healthy orders for freighters,” he said. “It won’t be anything like what we’ve seen in the 2006-2007 time frame when we were launching the 747-8 and the 777F, but healthy enough to sustain those production programmes.”
Some of those orders could come from Atlas Air, which hasn’t placed an order for freighters since 2006, and whose older 747-400s are “getting a bit longer in the tooth,” according to Perkins.
“Anybody who understands the trans-Pacific market will know that nothing comes close to the 747. It’s absolutely impossible,” he said. “The 747 is here to stay on trans-Pacific. There’s no question about it. So from that standpoint, we pray that the production line doesn’t shut down.”
By Jeffrey Lee
