The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently reported a decline in cargo volumes for January but warned that worse times are ahead as the figures don't yet include the impact of the coronavirus.

IATA said the global air freight markets demand, measured in cargo tonne kilometers (CTKs), decreased by 3.3% in January 2020, compared to the same period in 2019 despite the optimism of a recovery following the easing tension between the US and China.

January marked the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in cargo volumes, IATA said and the air cargo industry started the year on a weak footing.

Tough times ahead

"There was optimism that an easing of US-China trade tensions would give the sector a boost in 2020. But that has been overtaken by the COVID-19 outbreak, which has severely disrupted global supply chains, although it did not have a major impact on January’s cargo performance," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and CEO.

"Tough times are ahead. The course of future events is unclear, but this is a sector that has proven its resilience time and again," he added. 

Cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne kilometers (ACTKs), rose by 0.9% year-on-year in January 2020. Capacity growth has now outstripped demand growth for 21 consecutive months. 

IATA said it is unlikely that the Covid-19 outbreak had "very much to do" with January’s weak performance noting that the Lunar New Year in 2020 was earlier than in 2019. 

The trade association said February performance will give a better picture of how Covid-19 is impacting global air cargo.

Regional performance

Looking at regional performance, IATA said airlines in Asia-Pacific and Europe suffered sharp declines in year-on-year growth in total air cargo volumes in January 2020, while North American and Middle East carriers experienced a more moderate decline. Latin America and Africa were the only regions to record growth in air freight demand compared to January 2019.  

Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand for air cargo contract by 5.9% year-on-year in January, the sharpest drop in freight demand of any region for the month – although seasonally-adjusted cargo demand rose slightly, however, following the thawing of US-China trade relations.

North American airlines saw demand decrease by 1.3% in January 2020, compared to the same period a year earlier. European airlines posted a 3.7% decrease – more than double the 1.3%% drop in year-on-year demand in December and Middle Eastern airlines’ cargo volumes decreased 1.4% in January 2020 compared to the year-ago period against a backdrop of operational and geopolitical challenges facing some of the region’s key airlines.

IATA noted that given the Middle East’s position connecting trade between China and the rest of the world, the region’s carriers have significant exposure to the impact of Covid-19 in the period ahead. 

Meanwhile, Latin American airlines experienced an increase in freight demand in January 2020 of 1.4% compared to January 2019 – attributed to new route connections. 

African carriers posted the fastest growth of any region for the 11th consecutive month in January 2020, with an increase in demand of 6.8%  year-on-year growth due to an increase in the smaller Africa-Asia trade lanes.