Boeing is forecasting demand for 2,825 dedicated freighters between 2022 to 2042 as air cargo is seen to continue its long-term growth amid cyclical volatility.
In its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the American planemaker said this projection includes 925 new freighters and converted aircraft.
It added that out of the 2,825 aircraft forecasted over the next 20 years, there would be 650 large widebodies, 885 medium widebodies and 1,290 standard-body aircraft.
"Air cargo will continue to outpace global trade growth, with carriers requiring 2,800 dedicated freighters. This includes more than 900 new widebodies as well as converted narrow-body and widebody models," Boeing said.
It noted that the global freighter fleet stood at 2,270 in 2022, and by 2042 the freighter fleet will total 3,745.
Boeing said e-commerce is boosting express freighter fleets, recording a 20% growth from 2020-2022 for freighter aircraft operated by or for express carriers and e-commerce companies.
The CMO said the global fleet of freighter and passenger planes combined would nearly double to 48,600 jets, expanding by 3.5% per year from 2023-2042.
Boeing projects global demand for 42,595 new commercial jets by 2042 valued at US$8 trillion amid a resurgence in international traffic and domestic air travel back to pre-pandemic levels.
The planemaker also sees airlines replacing about half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.
"The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalizing on resurgent demand," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.
"Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects a further evolution of passenger traffic tied to the global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery."
