There was a distinctly firmer tone in air freight markets last week, according to the latest data from the TAC Index.

The price reporting agency (PRA) in air freight said the overall Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) rose +4.8% in the week to September 25, cutting its decline over 12 months to -38.5%.

Proper peak season bounce expectations

TAC Index noted that with sources also reporting solid pre-order bookings for some major product launches, including the new iPhone, "expectations are growing for a proper peak season bounce this year — and a stronger market through into Q1."

It noted that rates were firmer out of China in the runup to Golden Week, with the index for outbound Hong Kong (BAI30) routes rising +2.1% week-on-week (WoW), further trimming its YoY decline to -35.8%, amid speculation that some forwarders — particularly on the e-commerce side — who have not secured sufficient capacity yet may be left scrambling and forced to pay higher rates in the coming weeks.

Outbound Shanghai (BAI80) was even stronger, rising +5.9% WoW to cut its YoY fall to -35.2%, with rates to Europe rising as well as on TransPac routes. 

Meanwhile, the report found that rates were firmer for most major outbound routes, with Frankfurt (BAI20) up +3.8% WoW to cut its YoY fall to -43.7%. Rates out of London (BAI40) also jumped +5.6% WoW to end a series of recent falls, though still a long way down at -54.8% YoY. 

Outbound Chicago (BAI50) rates showed a particularly big rise, jumping +12.7% WoW to cut the YoY decline to -31.4%.

There were also big rises on some other major routes, such as from Miami to South America and from Vietnam to Europe, as well as to North America.

TAC Index said one significant exception was out of India, where rates were falling both in Europe and the US.