Air cargo rates are rising from most of the main global regions, especially from Asia Pacific and from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA), strengthened by the ongoing disruptions to container shipping and elevated demand for cross-border e-commerce shipments.

According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, the average global rate rose by around 3% in week 12 (March 18-24) to US$2.45, which is within 10% of its elevated level this time last year.

WorldACD said although global tonnages in week 12 were slightly down (-2%) compared with the previous week, tonnages for the last two weeks (weeks 11 and 12), combined, are up 1% compared with the previous two weeks (a 2Wo2W comparison).

Average rates are up by 6%, 2Wo2W, with capacity up by 2%. 

[Source: WorldACD]

"That 6% increase in rates, 2Wo2W, was mainly driven by rises of 10% from the Middle East & South Asia, and 7% from Asia Pacific origin points," the air cargo market data provider added. 

Year-on-year growth

WorldACD said overall global tonnages are up by 8%, YoY, led by a 15% rise from Middle East & South Asia and a 12% rise from Asia Pacific origin points, as disruptions to Asia-Europe container shipping — caused by the attacks on vessels in the Red Sea — and strong e-commerce demand continue to bolster air cargo demand from those regions.

But there is also YoY growth ex-Africa (10%), ex-Europe (6%) and ex-Central & South America (3%), with North America the only origin region to record a slight decline (1%).

"Six weeks on from Lunar New Year (LNY), year-on-year (YoY) comparisons are now more meaningful and reveal some significant improvements in demand levels compared with this time last year, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data," the report said.

 [Source: WorldACD]

Meanwhile, worldwide average air cargo rates are down 10% year over year, but they remain significantly above pre-COVID levels or 36% higher than in March 2019.

Overall, worldwide air cargo capacity continues to be significantly up on last year's levels (9%), most notably ex-Asia Pacific, which is 19% higher, and ex-Central & South America, which is up by 12%.

Middle East & South Asia growth

"As WorldACD has highlighted in recent weeks, one of the big ongoing stories at the moment is the continuing surge in demand and rates from MESA origin points," the report said.

It added that with tonnages up 15% YoY and capacity up by 6%, the report said it's the only major origin region to also record YoY increases in average rates, which are up by 29% YoY in weeks 11 and 12 combined and increased by 10% compared with the previous two weeks.

WorldACD said, as also recently highlighted, that certain Asia-Europe sea-air hubs such as Dubai, Colombo and Bangkok have experienced exceptionally high air cargo demand to Europe since the start of this year, in large part linked to the disruptions to Asia-Europe container shipping caused by the attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

"Fresh analysis this week also indicates that Dubai-Europe tonnages remain particularly strong, up by 162% in weeks 11 and 12, combined, compared with their level this time last year, and Bangkok-Europe tonnages remain significantly elevated, up by 46%, YoY in weeks 11 and 12," the report said.

Also, Colombo-Europe tonnages were up 22%, year on year (YoY), in weeks 11 and 12—similar to week 10 (up 24%), but only half the level of week 9 (up 38%) and a quarter of the level the three weeks before (more than 80%). 

"Analysis last week by WorldACD also revealed that the recent disruptions to container shipping have contributed to a big surge in average air freight rates from South Asia as a whole, with, currently, average rates from South Asia into Europe up by 66% for the period March 1-24 compared with December 2023, and up by +39% into North America," WorldACD said.

Eastern Mediterranean changes

A separate analysis by WorldACD suggests that disruption to container shipping to and from the eastern Mediterranean region may have contributed to higher air freight traffic from airports in that region to the MESA region.

It added that tonnages from Athens have gone up YoY "markedly" since November 2023, starting at 8% and peaking at 73% in February. So far in March, they are up 22%.

"A similar trend was seen for origin Istanbul, starting at 1% in November 2023, to 54% in February, YoY, and 30% so far for March."

"Traffic into Dubai went up even stronger from these two origin points, currently in March by +35% and +102%, respectively," the report said.