Global air cargo tonnages returned to growth in the third week of April, thanks in part to a surge in traffic from Central and South America (CSA), according to a new report by WorldACD.

The air cargo market data provider said flower shipments ahead of upcoming Mother's Day events in large parts of the world also made up for stalling demand from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA), linked to Eid.

According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, total worldwide tonnages rose by 3% in week 16 (April 15-21) after recording week-on-week (WoW) declines of -2%, -4% and -6% in the previous three weeks due to a combination of the effects of various holiday periods such as Easter and Eid resulting in subdued cargo booking levels.

 [Source: WorldACD]

Average worldwide rates held firm at US$2.50 per kilo in week 16, the same level as the previous week and the equivalent week last year.

WorldACD said that the rate remains significantly above pre-COVID levels or 39% higher compared to April 2019.

North America, top flower destination

The air cargo data provider noted that both CSA (up 16%) and Africa (up 15%) recorded strong WoW increases in tonnages in week 16.

It added that most (84%) of the tonnage growth ex-CSA could be attributed to higher flower exports to North America ahead of Mother's Day in the USA and Canada on May 12. Flower export tonnages ex-CSA were up by around 40%, WoW—representing more than one-third (1 percentage point) of the (3% rise, WoW) worldwide growth in tonnages in week 16.

"But the tonnage growth ex-Africa was led by fruits & vegetables (31% of Africa's WoW growth) and general cargo (29% of Africa's WoW growth), whereas flower exports represented only 10% of the WoW growth for origin Africa," WorldACD said.

"Although around 90 countries or territories around the world celebrate Mother's Day on the second Sunday in May, analysis by WorldACD reveals that North America is by far the most important destination market for flowers shipped by air, consuming 63% of all the flowers flown from CSA and Africa in week 16 (and 92% of the WoW growth in flower exports from CSA and Africa combined)," it added.

Meanwhile, WorldACD said a closer analysis indicates that air cargo tonnages from MESA and parts of Asia Pacific are not yet recovering post-Ramadan to the elevated tonnage levels seen for much of this year from that region, especially to European destinations, linked to strong demand developments combined with supply issues caused by disruptions to container shipping.

 [Source: WorldACD]

For the Gulf sub-region, this is partly explained by the heavy rainfall at the start of week 16 that mainly impacted Dubai, where flooding led to some flight cancellations.

WorldACD said Dubai recorded a WoW volume drop of 18% in week 16, whereas nearby fellow emirates Abu Dhabi and Sharjah recorded volume increases of 20% and 103%, respectively — boosted by cargo and flights diverted from Dubai.

After already dropping by 20% the previous week, Dubai-Europe tonnages fell by a further 29% in week 16, but they remained at more than twice their level this time last year (up 107%), boosted by sea-air tonnages resulting from the disruptions to container shipping in the Red Sea.

WorldACD said other hub airports and countries in the region also recorded WoW tonnage declines to Europe, including Colombo (decline of 24%) and Bangladesh (decline of 37%), as MESA to Europe tonnages as a whole dropped back by 14%.

India-Europe tonnages fared better, slipping by just 1%, WoW and YoY, whereas the other countries in South Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal) are, in total, down by 27%, WoW.

Spot rates from MESA to Europe also dropped back slightly in week 16, but they remain massively elevated compared with this time last year.

WorldACD said average spot rates from MESA to Europe in week 16 were more than twice their level this time last year (higher by 117%). India-Europe spot rates averaging close to US$4 a kilo in week 16 (US$3.95/kg) despite a slight WoW drop, leaving them up by 172% compared with week 16 last year.

The report noted that Bangladesh-Europe spot rates also dropped back slightly in week 16 to US$4.39 a kilo but remained up 168% YoY.

Sri Lanka-Europe prices remain up 43%, YoY, despite falling 10%, WoW. And Dubai-Europe spot prices rose in week 16 by +10%, presumably because of the restricted capacity caused by the flooding, and are up +18% YoY.