The ocean freight market has grown year over year since October 2023, with expanding Asia exports and signs of a trans-Atlantic trade recovery, according to the latest DHL Ocean Market Update Report.
This comes as the global GDP — as forecast by S&P Global Market Intelligence, is projected to grow to 2.5% in 2024, up from 2.3% amidst improved US, Canada, eurozone, UK and Russia predictions.
"There are now clear indicators that the economic tide is shifting in favour of trade growth," said Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
"Demand from Asia into North America is particularly brisk," he added.
In its May 2024 economic and demand outlook, DHL noted a pickup in growth momentum but pointed out that this could be vulnerable to geopolitical risks, such as a major escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which would materially impact growth.
Aside from S&P's upward revision of real GDP forecasts in some major economies, the analysis noted that PMIs continued to signal a pickup in global growth momentum in March.
In terms of capacity outlook, DHL said new containership deliveries drive a 9.6% annual fleet growth rate and vessel diversions and additional summer service deployments absorb available supply.
"In the upcoming weeks, the number of vessels redirected to the Cape Route is expected to reach 5 million TEUs," it added.
The report also noted that the idle container vessel fleet currently stands at 0.4% (62 vessels) only, and equipment issues across the Asia Pacific are increasing.
In terms of freight rates, DHL's Ocean Freight Market Outlook May 2024 noted that carriers have announced significant rate hikes on all Asia outbound lanes due to the increased demand and load factors coupled with equipment challenges in more ports now.
"We expect these increases to continue at least into the summer," DHL said.
Some regulations to note for the month include the third release of the European Union's customs pre-arrival safety and security systems – ICS2 – going live on June 3, 2024.
DHL said Denmark will ban open-loop scrubber use from 2025. Meanwhile, a subsequent ban on closed-loop scrubbers is expected to be introduced on July 1, 2029.
The DHL Ocean Freight Market Update is a monthly report by DHL Global Forwarding which tracks and analyses the latest developments in the global ocean freight market.
