The backlogs resulting from the three-day port strike at the US East and Gulf ports are causing congestion, which is expected to persist until the backlogs are cleared.
A recent Freightos analysis said Hurricane Milton battered the west coast of Florida earlier this month, causing power disruptions that kept the Port of Tampa Bay closed for several days, while ports in Miami and Jacksonville resumed operations before the end of the week of October 9.
The Port of Savannah, which was still facing a backlog from Hurricane Helene in September, will require another two weeks to restore full fluidity as the three-day ILA port strike added to the number of waiting vessels.
"Ships are waiting more than two days for a slot in Savannah, with the other major East Coast ports also reporting waits of one to four days at some terminals due to the strike, representing significant but not extreme congestion as the backlogs get cleared," said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.
He noted that some carriers have announced blanked sailings in response to the congestion, but may also be adjusting capacity to the lower, post-peak season volumes.
The analysis said Transpacific Ocean rates are now 30% below their July peaks, and with the early end to peak season, it is expected that rates will continue easing.
Freightos noted that rate levels of US$5,500/FEU to the West Coast and US$6,700/FEU to the East Coast are still several thousand dollars higher than typical levels even for peak season and are also still about US$1,000/FEU higher than the Red Sea-adjusted floor hit in April.
"As long as Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity on an industry level, prices may not fall much further than seen back in April," the report said.
Asia—Europe and Mediterranean trades—which, due to longer lead times for sailings around the Cape of Good Hope, had to have peak season goods moved out of Asia before Golden Week to receive them in time for Q4 consumer events—seem to be even further past peak demand than the transpacific.
Freightos said rates on these lanes fell further last week and, at about US$3,600/FEU to Europe and US$4,000/FEU to the Mediterranean, are already just about at April levels.
De minimis rule changes to impact e-commerce transport
Meanwhile, in air cargo, Freightos said that based on its Air Index data, transpacific air cargo rates jumped to US$7.07/kg with some ocean-to-air shift at the start of the ILA strike and fell back to US$5.43/kg last week.
But even at US$5 - US$6/kg, rates are elevated "well above" typical levels, even ahead of air's Q4 peak season, due to the continued surge of e-commerce volumes out of China.
"The importing of low-cost goods directly to consumers by high-cost air cargo is mostly facilitated by the de minimis exception, which exempts small imports from customs costs and rigorous and expensive filing requirements," Levine said.
He noted, however, that in September, the United States announced plans to significantly reduce access to the de minimise exemption, with the surging e-commerce imports from China as the main target.
Levine noted that actual rule changes will be a ways off, and final versions could be quite different from those proposed.
"Because of the lack of movement since September, e-commerce air cargo volumes are expected to increase along with other types of goods soon and through early December, making space even tighter and pushing rates higher," he said.
"If significant changes to de minimis do eventually go through though, they could result in a shift in strategy by e-commerce platforms like Temu and Shein, and a possible shift away or reduction in the use of air cargo for these types of goods," the Freightos head of research, added.