Ship capacity in deadweight tonnes transiting through the Panama Canal was 10% lower than the average from 2019 to 2022 from September 2024 to January 2025.

Although there were no transit restrictions during this period, transits of dry bulk, LNG and, to a lesser extent, tanker ships have not recovered to their historical levels, said Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO, one of the largest of the international shipping associations representing shipowners.

Between June 2023 and September 2024, transits through the Panama Canal were restricted due to low water levels in Gatun Lake. There were restrictions to both the total number of transits and ship draft, and ships competed for limited transit slots.

Sectors such as the container sector typically operate on fixed schedules, which allow them to book the transit slots ahead of other ships.

Meanwhile, non-bookable transit slots were also auctioned, usually favouring the highest bidder and thereby offering an advantage to some sectors. 

"Transit fees, changes in trade patterns and the establishment of a new normal could all be keeping ships from fully returning to the canal,"  Gouveia said.

"Furthermore, for the sectors which haven't fully returned, this has resulted in increased tonne mile demand as sailing distances have increased. Instead of transiting through the canal, ships sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn," he added.

For the dry bulk sector, a change in trade patterns for U.S. grains, the largest cargo transiting through the canal, has contributed to a reduction in Panama Canal transits.

BIMCO said the U.S. is increasingly exporting grains from ports on the West Coast, bypassing the canal. Since September, grain shipments from the West Coast to ports in the Pacific have risen 21% year over year, whereas shipments from the Gulf have fallen 6% year over year.

Coal cargoes also remain significantly below pre-restriction levels, as ships have largely continued to favour alternative routes.

Conversely, minor bulk cargoes transiting the canal are nearing pre-restriction levels, driven by stronger steel and fertilizer cargoes.

The BIMCO analysis added that ships in the LNG sector have hardly returned to the Panama Canal due to safety concerns related to their cargo. Few transit slots are offered to the sector, and no overnight transits are allowed.

Consequently, routes around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn have been perceived as more reliable and flexible.

"Although a return to the canal has been slow for some sectors, we still expect ship capacity transiting the waterway to increase," Gouveia said.

"Transits of container, LPG and car carriers are already above historical levels and could continue growing. However, the medium-term outlook for the dry bulk sector looks cloudier amid strong competition for grains shipments between the US and Brazil and a poor demand outlook for coal," he added.