According to DHL's Ocean Freight Market Outlook for February 2025, concerns about the potential early implementation of higher U.S. import tariffs have caused a surge in cargo shipments to avoid them.

A holiday lull is also expected after the Lunar New Year, although December PMI® data indicate subdued global goods inflation. 

Growth disparities have also widened by region, with the U.S. outperforming the other major developed economies.

India, on the other hand, continued to far outpace the other major emerging markets., although business confidence slipped lower worldwide.

DHL said in its Ocean Freight Market Outlook for the month that while tariff threats and impositions from the White House have "dominated recent headlines," the real challenge is in "deciphering how much and when as announcements are followed by abrupt reversals at a dizzying face."

"Tariff regimes are shifting by the week. The pace of change has prompted many shippers to frontload and stockpile goods, sending cargo into the U.S. before policies tighten further," said Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.

"We will also continue to monitor the situation and work with our customers to help them understand and adapt to any future changes that may come into effect," he added.

The report said global port congestion is at a three-month high (10.3%), especially in Chinese ports before the Lunar New Year, potentially affecting the transition to the new alliances network and causing blank sailings.

Meanwhile, it added that even as spot rates dip, global liner capacity remains fully employed, with only 0.2 percent of vessels (30 ships) currently idle.

Capacity outlook

The report said liner capacity increase slows after record 2024 and is estimated at 5% in 2025, but 16,000 TEU ships are set to become the mainstay as carriers move away from Ultra Large Container Ship (ULCS).

In terms of freight rates, the report said SCFI has dropped by 17% since the start of the year, following the averted port strike on the US East Coast, and continued rate volatility is expected from service disruptions from Alliance reshuffling and developments in the Red Sea.

"Blank sailings Far East westbound of 30% expected," DHL said in the analysis.

In terms of regulations, the report noted the EU ETS implementation in January, which increased its coverage of maritime emissions from 40% to 70%, leading to a significant rise in the ETS surcharge.

Looking ahead, the ICS2 Release 3 or Import Control System, the European Union's electronic security screening system, to go live for the ocean, road, & rail on April 1, 2025.

The report noted that the USTR has also warned of possible actions against Chinese ships over concerns of unfair dominance in shipbuilding. Currently, Chinese-built ships account for 17% of U.S.-bound vessels.

The DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Report is a monthly report by DHL Global Forwarding which tracks and analyses the latest developments in the global ocean freight market.