Full-month figures for February indicate a weakening of the air cargo market from China to the U.S. compared to that from China to Europe, as shippers adapt to the rapidly changing policies and statements of the new Trump administration.

According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, combined tonnages from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. in February—corrected for last February's extra day—were down 10% year over year (YoY), whereas China and Hong Kong to Europe chargeable weight was 4% higher than last February.

Those markets diverge on the pricing side as well, with China and Hong Kong's spot rates in the USA of US$3.80 per kilo in February averaging 9% below their equivalent levels last year, whereas Europe's average spot prices of US$4.58 per kilo were +17% higher than last February.

The air cargo market data provider noted that the different timings of Lunar New Year (LNY), which fell on January 29 this year compared with February 10 last year, and February last year having a leap day, complicate both YoY and month-on-month (MoM) absolute comparisons to some extent.

But comparisons between the relative performances of the U.S. and Europe markets remain valid.

For example, WorldACD noted that compared with January, China and Hong Kong's spot rates to the U.S. dropped 11% whereas to Europe, they held up much better, dropping just 2%, MoM, based on the more than 2 million monthly transactions covered by WorldACD's data.

Specifically, in the Shanghai market, the report said spot rates to the U.S. dropped 10% month-over-month to US$3.91 per kilo in February, while Shanghai to Europe spot rates increased 6% month-over-month to US$4.47 per kilo.

[Source: WorldACD]

"Although it is still too early to form any firm conclusions about these differing patterns, the relatively weaker performance of China to the U.S. air cargo market in February is consistent with an adjustment by Chinese e-commerce shippers to the suspension of China's access to US customs-free 'de minimis' exemptions in early February before that was reversed a few days later," the new analysis said.

It added that companies that are more involved in the e-commerce business will have been more affected by this.

Total worldwide tonnages in February were up, YoY, by 5%, led by YoY increases from Asia Pacific (up 8%), Central & South America (up 8%), Europe (up 4%), and North America (up 4%) origins.

WorldACD this was offset by a 6% YoY decrease from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins, compared with the heightened volumes from that region last February during the early stages of the Red Sea ocean freight capacity crisis.

"Combining the worldwide figures for January and February (corrected) to eliminate the complications of the timings of LNY shows a YoY increase of 3% for the first two months of 2025," the air cargo market data provider said.

For week 9 (February 24 to March 2), worldwide total tonnages regained a further 1%, their fourth consecutive week-on-week (WoW) increase, as demand slowly rebuilds following the LNY decline at the end of January.

Worldwide tonnages have rebounded to around their levels in mid-January.

Average worldwide rates also edged slightly upwards in week 9 to US$2.32 per kilo, 6% higher than last year.

WorldACD said average global spot rates of US$2.57 per kilo have been broadly stable for the last three weeks and stand around 10% higher YoY, with spot rates from Asia Pacific origins up 15%, Europe spot prices up 7%, and MESA rates up 6%.