Worldwide air cargo tonnages grew by 3%, year on year (YoY), in the first three months of 2025, with average global rates rising 4%, YoY, according to preliminary first-quarter (Q1) figures from WorldACD Market Data.

The air cargo market data provider said this low single-digit growth in Q1 2025 could be attributed to market uncertainties linked to tariffs and is "very different from the levels seen last year, when growth averaged 11% YoY, and Q4 still up 8%. 

 [Source: WorldACD]

"It reflects an uncertain market bracing for a disruptive new wave of US tariffs, the removal of US de minimis exemptions for shipments from China and Hong Kong, and challenges to some of the supply chain models of the last two decades," WorldACD said.

On a full-month basis, worldwide tonnages rose by 19%, month on month (MoM), in March from their depleted level in February, resulting from the usual seasonal factory closures in the weeks following the Lunar New Year.

Global air cargo tonnages rose 5% year over year (YoY) in March, with growth driven by increases from Asia Pacific (9%), North America (6%), Africa (6%), and Central & South America (4%). These gains were offset by a 6% decline in tonnages from the Middle East & South Asia and flat volumes from Europe origins.

Worldwide flown tonnages in March were back up close to their monthly levels in the second half of 2024, including demand from Asia Pacific origins that was higher than experienced in the peak season months of October and November.

Meanwhile, average worldwide rates in March of US$2.38 per kilo were 4% higher than the previous month and up by 2%, YoY.

APAC rates rise further; APAC-USA tonnages dip

On a weekly basis, WorldACD said spot prices from Asia Pacific origins rose by a further 3%, week on week (WoW), to an average of US$3.80 per kilo in week 13 (March 24 to 30), around 8% higher than the equivalent week last year, despite a 3% drop in tonnages from Asia Pacific.

Worldwide spot rates edged up by a further 2%, WoW, to US$2.70 per kilo, while worldwide average overall rates, based on a mix of spot and contract rates, edged up 1% to US$2.45 per kilo, up 1% higher, YoY.

"Despite some reports and expectations of 'front-loading' of cargo ahead of anticipated new US tariffs, flown tonnages in week 13 from Asia Pacific to the USA dropped by 3%, WoW, including from China and Hong Kong (both down 1%), although Asia Pacific to the US tonnages were 7% up compared with week 13 last year," WorldACD said.

Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US continued to rise in week 13, regaining a further 6%, WoW, to US$5.49 per kilo – their highest level since week 1, and taking them 11% higher, YoY.