DHL's latest market updates point to a widening gap between ocean and air freight trends as 2026 begins, with the December 2025 air report showing steady demand recovery while the January 2026 ocean outlook highlights continued volatility from capacity shifts and geopolitical disruptions.
Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said 2026 is expected to bring sharply varied conditions for shippers, with outcomes increasingly shaped by their ability to adapt across modes, regions, and operational demands.
"2026 is expected to be a year of very different realities for shippers depending on mode, geography and routing," Frank said. "Shippers that embrace agility—operational and environmental—will weather the storm and emerge stronger in a market defined by resilience and responsibility."
The latest Ocean Freight Market Update Report for January 2026 noted that for ocean shippers, all eyes are back on the Suez Canal, which may soon welcome more container vessels. As a start, CMA CGM and several regional operators are operating limited, primarily backhaul services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal into the Mediterranean.
"This could jolt a market that has been held aloft by transits around southern Africa, which had resulted in port congestion and swallowed around 10-15 percent of effective global container shipping capacity in 2025," the report said.
Nominal fleet capacity is forecasted to grow by four percent in 2026, down from seven percent in 2025. However, effective capacity—reduced by congestion and detours—will rise faster as movement along the Suez Canal resumes.
"A full-scale return of liner services to the Red Sea would initially be disruptive, with increased risks of port congestion, landside capacity constraints, and short-term cost implications," said Bjoern Schoon, senior vice president, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
"However, once networks stabilize, it will benefit shippers through faster transit times, and the trade is likely to become more competitive on pricing," he added.
The expected ocean market recalibration will "ripple through air cargo in complex ways," DHL said, adding that beyond the potential decline in sea-air hybrid solutions, air freight could see a temporary spike in demand as shippers with critical cargo avoid port congestion and delays that accompany the Suez Canal's return.
DHL's Air Freight Market Update Report for December 2025 noted that global air cargo demand has remained resilient, finishing 2025 at three to five percent growth, and entering 2026 with demand that is outpacing structurally constrained capacity in several lanes.
It added that passenger belly-hold now accounts for 66% of total capacity, while dedicated freighter capacity is down seven percent year-on-year.
Meanwhile, the report said while U.S. demand has stalled, Asia's exporters have re-routed to Europe or newer, more developing markets.
Regional demand leadership shifted toward Asia Pacific (+11%), with Middle East and Africa (+7%), and Europe (+3%) also expanding.
"In the year ahead, Asia’s demand growth is forecasted to grow at 2.6%, with the corresponding capacity growing steadily, alongside passenger belly network growth.
While operational dynamics dominate headlines, sustainability regulations are quietly transforming cost structures.
DHL pointed to the EU Emissions Trading System which is now fully operational for maritime transport, covering 100% of emissions for voyages in and out of Europe since January 2026.
Carriers, in essence, will procure emission allowances and pass these costs to shippers, adding a significant surcharge to European trades.
The potential cost increases from the carbon emissions reduction policies make low-emission transport options increasingly attractive.
DHL noted that looking ahead in 2026, both ocean and air freight will navigate a myriad of challenges through waves of volatility'
"In ocean freight, greater capacity is expected to shift negotiating power toward shippers. In air freight, market indicators suggest a more stable environment, with seasonal and event-driven fluctuations," Frank said.
The DHL Air Freight and Ocean Freight Market Update Reports are monthly reports by DHL Global Forwarding that track and analyze the latest developments in the global air and ocean freight market.