Industry analysts at Xeneta say the escalating conflict in the Middle East is the latest macro‑event testing the resilience of global logistics. The firm reported that air cargo demand rose 6% year‑on‑year in February 2026, extending two months of improving volumes and suggesting underlying market strength despite a turbulent year for global trade. However, with the conflict intensifying only days into March, Xeneta notes that the market outlook has again become uncertain.

Global air cargo update

Demand growth in February continued to outpace capacity expansion, rising faster than the +4% year‑on‑year increase in available space. As a result, the dynamic load factor—Xeneta's measure of capacity utilization based on both volume and weight—rose two percentage points to 62%.

Supported by a short pre–Lunar New Year surge, air cargo spot rates recorded their first monthly increase since May 2025, rising 5% to US$2.58 per kg. The rate uptick was influenced not only by seasonal demand but also by the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar compared with a year earlier.

At a corridor level, Europe-North America saw the biggest year-on-year increase in air cargo spot rates in February of +21%, while demand for semiconductors continued to invigorate Northeast Asia-North America rates. It was the only other corridor to see double-digit growth of +10% in February, compared to a year ago. 

Xeneta noted that tariff impacts, however, weakened China to US air cargo demand, while China to Europe volumes remained relatively stable, but neither corridor repeated the typical pre-holiday cargo rush at the start of 2025.

"This hints at what's likely to happen in 2026," the global market analytics platform said. Xeneta noted that some Asia-based airlines with strong exposure to ecommerce remain optimistic about growth prospects in 2026, while others are taking a more cautious, wait-and-see stance.

Even before the Middle East conflict escalated, indicators from some freight forwarders suggested they were less upbeat about 2026 and expected a downward pressure on rates as players chased market share, potentially pushing their sell rates to shippers lower.

Middle East - impact on airfreight

Xeneta analysts said the outlook for air cargo now depends on the length and outcome of conflict in the Middle East, demonstrating the volatility of international trade and how quickly the outlook picture can pivot.

Military strikes on Iran by the US and Israel, which commenced on February 28, and Iran's retaliatory response of targeting its neighbours in the region, brought Middle East commercial airspace to a virtual standstill. Airspace closures and flight cancellations withdrew 12% of global air cargo capacity from the market immediately.

Major regional hubs — such as Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi — temporarily suspended flight operations amid multiple airspace restrictions, causing an immediate impact on the Asia–Europe air cargo corridor. The revenue impact of disrupted flight timetables is just one of the concerns for airlines.

Jet fuel, a major airline cost component, could also rise materially if crude prices continue to climb. Industry analysts already report Brent crude oil prices above US$80 per barrel, and these could potentially exceed US$100 if oil production infrastructure is targeted due to tensions in the region.

If the conflict is brief and flights to/from the Middle East resume quickly, markets will normalise faster and reduce concerns of a longer-term spike in oil prices, but protracted disruption lasting weeks is likely to mean prices on affected markets could double or even triple.

A further escalation of the conflict could trigger a global energy shock and stagflationary pressures reminiscent of the 1970s, with sharply higher oil prices and a significant correction in equity markets, both unwelcome developments in relation to trade volumes, shipping costs, and retail prices.

Security fears for shipping using The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global oil shipments and about 30% of global seaborne oil trade, have already been heightened with attacks on vessels in waters off the Persian Gulf.

Shippers' modal flexibility reduced

In terms of airline capacity, Xeneta said carriers will need to reroute freighters via Central Asia for technical stops or deploy more direct Asia–Europe services, depending on traffic rights, airspace availability, and operational constraints.

It added that this situation reduces the flexibility shippers previously relied on during Red Sea disruptions.

When Houthi-related risks disrupted ocean routes, some volumes shifted from ocean to air; this time, that option may be more limited. Ocean carriers such as MSC and Maersk, which had previously signaled a return to the Red Sea, have now suspended Suez routings and reverted to round-Africa diversions.

"So long as airlines can resume normal operations to, from and over the Middle East region, disruptions to ocean carriers may, once again, rescue air cargo demand and see upward pressure on air freight rates across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East," Xeneta said.

It added that rate increases would be driven primarily by capacity constraints and the speed at which carriers can reallocate lift away from the conflict zone.

A reset of the air cargo outlook for 2026? 

"On February 21, we thought the main talking point for the month would be the US Supreme Court's ruling to strike down the Trump administration's broad 'emergency' tariffs, the subsequent introduction of temporary 10% tariffs, what it would mean for countries such as China and India, and the outlook for air cargo," said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer.

"Then, on February 28, we witnessed the strikes on Iran and the start of everything that has happened since. This is the world we are living in, and the reality for businesses facing one new challenge after another," he added. "If we only had February's data to focus on, we would say the start of the year has been encouraging for the air cargo market. Now, the stakes are raised."

van de Wouw said past reactions to previous macro-events show that the global airfreight industry is highly skilled in finding creating solutions.

"But it will come at the price of higher logistical costs for the owner of the goods," Xeneta's chief airfreight officer said. "But I am sure they will temporarily have no issue with paying such additional fees as long as they can serve their customers on time. In the coming weeks, we might see (again) the vulnerability and strength of the airfreight industry in the spotlight," he added.