DHL said global freight demand is holding steady even as shippers face higher costs, longer routings and mounting congestion across major trade lanes, according to its latest Air Freight Market Update (March 2026) and Ocean Freight Market Update (April 2026).

It said that fuel volatility, geopolitical detours and network bottlenecks have pushed up both air and ocean rates, but these pressures have not dampened overall cargo movement—particularly out of Asia, which continues to anchor global trade flows.

"For shippers in Asia, the narrative for 2026 spells less about whether goods will move, and more about how much friction and cost are now built into every move," said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. "Success in this environment depends less on finding the cheapest rate and more on building buffer into schedules, budgets, and routing strategies across both ocean and air freight."

Across both ocean and air freight, DHL said fuel volatility is now the "dominant driver." 

It noted that while shippers entered 2026 with relatively disciplined capacity and steady Asian export demand, that balance shifted rapidly as energy prices spiked. Consequently, container rates moved quickly, and are expected to remain high as surcharges are fully implemented and routing distances remain extended. 

Jet fuel prices have surged 64% to US$170 per barrel, prompting airlines to raise fuel surcharges.

Spot air freight rates reached US$3.38 per kilo by week 12, up 26% year on year. Ocean container rates have also climbed as carriers implement surcharges and maintain longer detours around disrupted regions.

Even so, DHL says demand has remained resilient.

"Despite higher rates, demand has not softened. Instead, it has re‑sequenced itself geographically, with Asia remaining as the primary source of growth.“

"Asia is still powering global trade as freight continues to move along. The question is whether it will move on the schedule and cost assumptions that were made last quarter,” said Fabio Weiss, senior vice president, Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. 

Air cargo demand grew 7% year on year globally, with Asia posting 14% growth. The Asia–Europe air corridor rose 8% in February, driven by technology, electronics and time‑critical manufacturing shipments.

Container demand also increased 3% globally, with Asia–Europe volumes up 22% Asia–Africa up 15% and Asia–Oceania up 20%.

DHL warns that freight conditions are being shaped by more than simple supply‑demand dynamics.

"The market is no longer just limited to supply and demand. It is demand, plus detours, plus fuel, plus network friction," said Bjoern Schoon, senior vice president, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.

 Heavy congestion in the Persian Gulf has forced cargo into alternate ports and triggered costly overland rerouting, and Asia bears the brunt of indirect strain, with mounting congestion at transshipment hubs such as Sri Lanka and Singapore, alongside reduced bunker fuel availability at key ports.  

Air networks are also feeling the strain. Global air cargo tracking capacity fell 7% percent year on year in March, with the Gulf region down 64%. While Asia–Europe capacity has increased, DHL notes that much of it is replacement capacity routed around the Middle East, not true expansion—resulting in higher fuel burn and persistent 7‑ to 10‑day backlogs at major hubs.

"Disrupted hubs are also tightening the air freight network," DHL added, noting that while Asia‑Europe capacity has since increased, it is largely replacement capacity routed around the Middle East, not genuine expansion.

These longer routings come with higher fuel burn, lower network efficiency, and persistent 7 to 10-day backlogs in major transit hubs. 

DHL said shippers can't eliminate these risks but can manage them more strategically. 

"The most resilient shippers are those who shift from rate‑led decisions to option‑led strategies," Frank said. "That means choosing logistics partners that offer more routing options, more carrier choices, clearer surcharge rules, and tighter alignment between logistics planning and inventory strategy."

The DHL Air Freight and Ocean Freight Market Update Reports are published monthly by DHL Global Forwarding.