Ocean freight is seeing an "extraordinary" increase in deployed capacity at a time when production is usually slower in Asia, and shipping lines would normally be blanking sailings.

Sea-Intelligence said in an analysis that Asia-North America West Coast is seeing capacity growth of 35%-38%, Asia-North America East Coast of a staggering 57%-59%, and Asia-North Europe at 28%-42% with Asia-Mediterranean the only trade lane that is closer to the pre-pandemic levels.

"Traditionally, Chinese New Year (CNY) sees a production slowdown in Asia, and the shipping lines blank sailings in order to bring supply in line with demand," the Danish shipping data analysis company said.

It noted that in 2020, there was even an extension of CNY due to the Covid outbreak, while in both 2021 and 2022, the shipping lines kept capacity high in order to cater to the high demand levels.

"Given that demand growth has now stagnated and freight rates are still dropping, it would make sense for the shipping lines to blank additional capacity during CNY 2023 to try and stem the bleeding freight rates," Sea-Intelligence said. "That is, however, not the case."

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Source: Sea-Intelligence

As seen in figure 1, it noted that comparing 2023 with both 2019 and the average capacity growth rate of 2015-2019, there is an "extraordinary increase in deployed capacity."

"This development is quite concerning, as despite falling demand, deployed capacity during CNY 2023 is slated to be higher than the deployed capacity in 2021, where demand was absolutely surging," said Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.

"If demand continues to be sluggish, or outright contracts, given these capacity levels, freight rates will continue to tumble," he added.

"With the shipping lines sitting on piles of cash, further helped by a highly profitable Q3, we might end up in a situation where there is another price war reminiscent of the one we saw in 2015-2016," the Sea-Intelligence chief added.