Airline executives signalled mixed views on when the industry would start seeing normalization within the industry, but they share similar expectations of headwinds in the short term and a positive overall outlook for the aviation sector in the long term.

Speaking at TIACA’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami, some air cargo executives were more positive about a normalization timeline in 2023, while others expect it not until 2025.

Sanjeev Gadhia, chief executive at Astral Aviation in Nairobi, warned of “strong headwinds” ahead but noted that the aviation industry could see a start of normalization after the Chinese New Year at the end of January.

The 2023 Lunar New Year officially begins in Hong Kong on January 22, but the celebration will often last for about two weeks.

“We expect that things will start getting better from March 2023 onwards, and this is after the Chinese New Year,” he told the CEO roundtable on “Current Business Environment, Future Opportunities and How the Industry Must Evolve.”

Gadhia also painted a positive outlook for the industry for next year despite the challenges currently facing the aviation sector. “We are very, very optimistic, very confident that we will have a great 2023 ahead of us,” he said.

Gabriel Oliva, the Miami-based chief executive of Colombia’s Avianca Cargo, said predicting when things will get better is a tough call – and the current market could be seen as “normal” after the “artificial” air cargo flows in the last two years when the pandemic shut down parts of the supply chains.

“I think we’ll go through short-term headwinds,” Oliva said. “But in the medium term, we’re very positive.”

Tobias König, global chief executive of Rhenus Air & Ocean, noted that the return of belly capacity currently seen could signal a positive development for the air cargo industry and a few months through 2023, the industry could see the direction it's headed.

“I think it’s very difficult to really say when it will become better, but I also want to think that after Chinese New Year, we’ll have a good chance that the market will become better and the situation will start easing up,” König told the CEO roundtable.

“The last couple of years have been really tough for all of us to satisfy our customers because the capacity is pretty low. It was hard for us to serve our customers all around the globe, but this is already getting better at the moment.”

“Let’s see, two to three months after Chinese New Year, it might be better,” König said.

Tim Strauss, chief executive at Miami-based all-cargo airline Amerijet International, said the recovery could extend through 2025.

“Those who operate aircraft around the world are saying that maybe 2025 before they feel confident [about the recovery],” Strauss said during the CEO roundtable. “Based on the numbers, I think that’s fairly accurate – hopefully, it’s a little better than that.”

Strauss noted, however, that the situation will adjust to “market developments.”

By Charlee C. Delavin

Asia Cargo News | Miami