Global air cargo tonnages have shown no sign yet of a post-holiday season recovery. In contrast, last year, there was already an upswing by the end of the first week of January, according to the latest preliminary figures from WorldACD Market Data.

The air cargo market data provider noted that this is consistent with a continued softening of market conditions.

Figures for week 1 (January 2 to 8) show worldwide tonnages to be "stable" compared with the previous week, while last year in the same period an increase of 4% was observed.

WorldACD said the underlying trend, therefore, seems to be a global weakening of demand. However, average rates held firm in the first week of 2023, showing an increase of 1% compared with the previous week, whereas last year a substantial decrease recorded of 5%.

"Comparing weeks 52 and 1 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), tonnages decreased 27% below their combined total in weeks 50 and 51, with a 5% decrease in capacity, while average worldwide rates declined 3% – based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data," the report said.

In this two-week period, tonnages were significantly down between all regions, as is common this time of year.

WorldACD said notable decreases were recorded between Europe and Central & South America (-34% eastbound, -44% westbound), between Europe and North America (-34% eastbound, -42% westbound), between Europe and Africa (southbound -38%, northbound -27%) and between Europe and Asia Pacific (-34% eastbound, -15% westbound).

Year-on-year perspective

"Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 52 and 1 was down 21% compared with the equivalent period last year, at 1% lower capacity," the air cargo market data provider said.

It added that notably, tonnages ex-North America are down by 29%, and ex-Asia Pacific tonnages were 26% below their strong levels this time last year.

But there were also double-digit percent year-on-year drops on tonnages outbound from Europe (-18%) and Middle East & South Asia (-12%).

WorldACD said overall capacity had fallen slightly (-1%) compared to the previous year and is down from Asia Pacific (-11%), Central & South America (-5%) and Europe (-2%), whereas from Africa (+12%), North America (+4%) and Middle East & South Asia (+4%) capacity remains above its levels this time last year.

"Worldwide rates are currently -28% below their unusually elevated levels this time last year at an average of US$3.08 per kilo in week 1, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels," the report added.