The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates that air cargo growth will further slow in 2023 from last year's already muted performance. Airlines are, however, expected to return to operating profitability in the last quarter of the year after three consecutive years of losses.
In its latest forecast, the United Nations agency said that air cargo growth will nonetheless still be higher than the pre-Covid 19 numbers recorded.
Slower air cargo growth
"Current estimates for air cargo in 2022 reflect 2021 levels while still showing marginal growth compared to the pre-pandemic level," ICAO said in a statement, where it also forecasted a "complete and sustainable recovery and growth of air passenger demand in 2023."
"The pace of growth for air cargo is, however, expected to be lower in 2023, given the slowing global economic growth, although long-term air cargo growth remains in line with previously estimated trends indicating strong long-term growth," it added.
Using advanced big data analytics, ICAO forecasts that air passenger demand in 2023 will "rapidly recover" to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter and that growth of around 3% on 2019 figures will be achieved by year-end.
"Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation's ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels and will consequently be vital to countries' recovery from the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic," said Salvatore Sciacchitano, president of ICAO Council.
ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar noted that the forecast builds on the strong momentum toward recovery in 2022.
Salazar also said the goal towards zero accident fatalities by 2030 and zero carbon emissions by 2050 goals, will continue to play key roles in both continued guiding progress and in prioritizing ICAO's implementation support initiatives.
The number of air passengers carried in 2022 increased by an estimated 47% compared to 2021, while revenue passenger kilometres (RPK’s) increased by around 70% over the same period, due mainly to the rapid recovery of most international routes.
In line with earlier ICAO predictions, the report said the strong recovery in air passenger demand has resulted in 2022 passenger numbers reaching an estimated 74% of pre-pandemic levels, while passenger revenues are estimated to have reached around 68% of 2019 levels.
The number of passenger aircraft in service in 2022 mirrors the overall traffic recovery, with current estimates suggesting 75% of pre-pandemic levels.
Airline to return to profitability in 2023
ICAO noted that looking further ahead, airlines are expected to return to operating profitability in the last quarter of 2023 after three consecutive years of losses.
Meanwhile, air passenger demand in 2024 is expected to be stronger, at around 4% higher than in 2019.
In terms of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), this translates to a growth of 0.7% over the 2019-2024 period.
"This forecasted recovery and growth for the world of civil aviation come with the caveat that risks affecting international air transport do not escalate from current levels," ICAO said.