Global air cargo tonnages recovered at the end of January and the beginning of February, as expected after the early Lunar New Year this year, according to the latest preliminary figures from WorldACD Market Data, but it noted that the increase was significantly stronger than in the equivalent period last year.

In its latest analysis, WorldACD figures for week 5 (January 30 to February 5) showed an increase of 11% in worldwide tonnages compared with the previous week, following a large decrease of the week before of 13%, mainly driven by the Lunar New Year that started on January 22.

In the same period last year, tonnages increased by 3%.

WorldACD noted that after falling by around 8% in week 4, the global average rate level recovered slightly by 1% compared with the previous week, similar to the trend observed last year, but prices remain well below their level prior to Lunar New Year.

Comparing weeks 4 and 5 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), tonnages are down significantly 8% below their combined total in weeks 2 and 3, with average worldwide rates also down by 8%, despite a 4% decrease in capacity – based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data.

On a regional level, the effect of the Lunar New Year on air cargo tonnages was most notable on flows outbound from Asia Pacific to Europe (-41%), North America (-40%) and the Middle East & South Asia (-38%), respectively, but also on intra-Asia Pacific flows (-23%).

Meanwhile, it noted strong increases were recorded from Central & South America to North America (+37%), from Africa to Europe (+29%) and from Europe to North America (+10%).

Volume, rate down year-on-year

"Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 4 and 5 was down 26% compared with the equivalent period last year," the report said.

Most notably, it said tonnages ex-Asia Pacific are down by 47%, although this comparison is skewed because last year, the Lunar New Year started ten days later, on February 1.

There were also double-digit percent year-on-year drops in tonnages outbound from North America (-25%), Europe (-14%) and Middle East & South Asia (-13%).

"Overall capacity has increased by 10% compared with the previous year, with positive developments from all regions except Asia Pacific (-10%) due to the Lunar New Year. The most notable increases were ex-Europe (+21%) and ex-Africa (+19%)," WorldACD added.

Meanwhile, it added that worldwide rates are currently 31% below their levels this time last year, at an average of US$2.78 per kilo in week 5, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels.