Flown air cargo tonnages unexpectedly softened in the last full week of the first quarter, following a brief period of stability since the end of the Lunar New Year holidays, according to a new report by WorldACD, although global average rates have remained stable with a slight upwards tilt — especially outbound from Asia.

Figures from WorldACD Market Data indicate that although the end of a quarter often brings an uplift in air cargo demand, figures for week 12 (March 20 to March 26) show a drop of 4% in worldwide tonnages, compared with the previous week's and following several weeks of relative stability since mid-February.

Weakening signs of air cargo tonnages

"Comparing weeks 11 and 12 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), overall tonnages decreased by 2% versus their combined total in weeks 9 and 10, accompanied by a 1% increase in capacity," the report said, adding that average worldwide rates slightly increased, by 1% based on the more than 400,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data.

"At a regional level, there are signs of a weakening development in air cargo tonnages between various markets," WorldACD added.

It noted that on a 2Wo2W basis, particularly flows ex-North America to Asia Pacific (-7%) and to Europe (-5%), and flows ex-Europe to Asia Pacific (-4%) and to North America (-5%).

Furthermore, demand on the big lanes from Asia-Pacific to North America and Europe remained broadly stable, while notable increases were recorded in the flows between the Middle East & South Asia and Asia Pacific (eastbound +13%, westbound +5%).

"While volumes have been declining in the last two weeks, on the pricing side, average rates have continued to show a stable trend on a 2Wo2W basis from all regions, except Asia Pacific, where rates have risen (+3%)," WorldACD said.

Year-on-year perspective

The air cargo market data provider pointed out that comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 11 and 12 was down 9% compared with the equivalent period last year.

The notable percentage decreases in tonnages year-on-year were ex-North America (-23%), ex-Europe (-9%), ex-Middle East & South Asia (-6%).

Also ex-Asia Pacific, the trend compared to last year was negative (-7%), despite recent positive developments from that region.

"Overall capacity has jumped by 13% compared with the previous year, with double-digit percentage increases from almost all regions," it said, adding that the most-notable increases were ex-Africa (+22%), ex-Asia Pacific (+20%) and ex-Europe (+15%).

Worldwide rates are currently -32% below their levels this time last year, at an average of US$2.75 per kilo in week 12, WorldACD said, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-Covid levels.