The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced its expectation for overall renewable fuel production to reach an estimated capacity of at least 69 billion litres (55 million tonnes) by 2028.
In a statement, IATA said Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) would comprise a portion of this growing output which is being achieved through new renewable fuel refineries and the expansion of existing facilities.
Importantly, the expected production has a wide geographic footprint covering North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.
"The expected production increase is extremely encouraging. Seeing this, we need governments to act to ensure that SAF gets its fair production share. That means, in the first instance, production incentives to support aviation's energy transition," said Willie Walsh, IATA's director-general, adding that the industry also needs "continued approval for more diversification of methods and feedstocks available for SAF production."
"With these two measures successfully in place, we can be confident that the expected 2028 production levels will realistically align with our recently published roadmaps to net zero carbon emissions by 2050."
"That is important as we are counting on SAF to provide about 62% of the carbon mitigation needed in 2050," Walsh further said.
IATA noted that trends supporting this optimistic outlook are already visible.
In 2022, SAF production tripled to some 300 million litres (240,000 tonnes), and project announcements for potential SAF producers are rapidly growing.
SAF production goals
IATA counts over 130 relevant renewable fuel projects announced by more than 85 producers across 30 countries and said each of these projects has either announced the intent or commitment to produce SAF within their wider product slate of renewable fuels.
It noted, however, that typically, there is a 3-year lag between a project announcement and its commercialization date.
"This implies that further renewable fuel capacity out until 2030 could still be announced over the following years," Walsh said.
IATA said in its statement that if renewable energy production reaches 69 billion litres by 2028, as estimated, the trajectory to 100 billion litres (80 million tonnes) by 2030 would be on track.
If just 30% of that produced SAF, the industry could achieve 30 billion litres (24 million tonnes) of SAF production by 2030.
"Achieving the necessary SAF percentage output from these new and expanding facilities is not a given. But with governments the world over agreeing at ICAO to a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero by 2050, they now share accountability for aviation's decarbonization. That means establishing a policy framework to ensure that aviation gets the needed share of renewable energy production in SAF," Walsh added.
Policy support, government investment
IATA further noted that the case for diversification, within current sustainability criteria, is clear. At present, it is expected that 85% of future SAF volume over the next five years will be derived from just one of nine certified pathways, being Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), which is dependent on the limited availability of feedstock such as waste fat, oil and grease feedstocks (FOGs, recognized by the industry as second-generation feedstock).
IATA then identified three main avenues to achieve SAF diversification: scaling already certified SAF pathways, accelerated R&D for SAF production pathways that are currently in development; and scaling up of feedstock/feedstock conversion technology.
"Accelerating these avenues to commercialized levels will require policy leadership from governments. To start, there is an impending need for the harmonization of core SAF policies as a means of reducing administrative, logistical and geographic barriers to entry for new market entrants, including producers, feedstock providers, and off-takers," IATA added.
More fundamentally, IATA wrote that the challenge is finding the capital needed to fund the development of new technology and production facilities.
It said that governments must look at the broader sustainability picture with these investments.
"People have experienced the governments' role in the transition to green energy for electricity. They now expect it for SAF. The G7 leaders are among the latest to reiterate their understanding that SAF is critical for sustainable aviation. Now they must support their declarations with effective policies," Walsh said.
"To promote SAF production, there are many tried and tested tools, including tax credits, grants, or even direct investments in emerging technologies and solutions. The market is there. Airlines want to purchase SAF. Anything to meaningfully incentivize SAF production will be a step forward," the IATA chief added.