Freightos reported that ex-Asia ocean rates were stable overall last week, in the just-post-Golden Week period, when rates are often under some upward pressure from the holiday backlog.
In its recent analysis, it said that rate levels that have fallen since the end of August reflect "easing volumes" as well as significant overcapacity in the market.
Freightos noted that prices from Asia to the US East Coast and N. Europe are well below 2019 levels, while rates to the West Coast are still 17% higher than in 2019, possibly reflecting some shift of volumes back to the West Coast as the threat of labour disruptions has ended.
If rates have reached their floor, it is likely thanks to significant capacity management measures taken by carriers.
The Transpacific lane, meanwhile, will have about 23% of deployed capacity blanked in October — the highest level since April.
"And though overcapacity is leading to lower rates, it is also leading to poorer reliability for shippers as last-minute blanked sailings can cause delays in the form of rolled containers and late arrivals," Freightos said.
It added that one way to mitigate this type of disruption is to schedule cancellations ahead of time, which is what the 2M alliance did this week through their reduced winter schedule for Asia - N. Europe announced through December.
The report said the scaled-down service reflects both the lull in demand and excess capacity on this lane, where more new ultra-large vessels are likely to be idled immediately upon delivery for the same reasons.
Israel ocean, logistics fully-operational
"In Israel, ocean and inland logistics have continued to be fullyoperational despite the ongoing war. Freightos Data shows import container rates to Israel are in line with rates for the region overall," Freightos noted.
"Yesterday, however, one vessel was diverted from the port of Ashdod to Haifa as carriers are reporting some congestion due to labour shortages and tighter security, and Israeli carrier ZIM warned of the possibility of short-notice service interruptions and announced a US$80 - US$120 war risk premium on containers to and from Israeli ports," it added.
The report noted, however, that most passenger carriers and some cargo airlines have cancelled flights to and from Israel, and Freightos Data shows Israeli air cargo export rates to destinations in Europe and the US have increased by 20% or more since last week.
For the period, Freightos Air Index rates from China to the US and Europe remain at their highest levels since the spring on reports of increased volumes in the last few weeks.
It noted that some observers think these rate increases are amplified by a more general shift to the spot market in air cargo, and many remain pessimistic about a prolonged air cargo rebound despite these recent trends.
Ocean rates based on Freightos Baltic Index for Asia-US West Coast (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3% to US$1,548/FEU, while Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) dipped 1% to US.$2,219/FEU.
Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 3% to US$946/FEU, and Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 1% to US$1,480/FEU.
Air rates based on the Freightos Air Index said China - N. America weekly prices increased 4% to US$4.82/kg, and China - N. Europe weekly prices fell 1% to US$3.71/kg.
For North Europe - North America, weekly prices increased by 3% to US$1.69/kg.