Carriers could face continued challenges in aligning capacity and demand next year and beyond, putting further pressure on the shipping industry.

Freightos said the latest data from September showed continued strength among US consumers as retail spending increased .07% compared to August. At the same time, there are multiple signs that a slowdown could be coming including some spending pull-back among lower-income consumers, a falling personal saving rate, and an increase in debt delinquencies. 

"Reports by many major retailers that inventories are now under control is a positive sign for the possibility of a restocking cycle after the holidays if spending holds up," the booking and payments platform for international freight added.

"But the rundown of those inventories in the last few months also meant less importing and a relatively short and subdued peak season this year."

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said demand also continues to ease into the typical post-peak season pre-Lunar New Year lull, but transpacific rates may be levelling off at a new floor as carriers work to reduce capacity.

He noted that prices to the West Coast fell 3% last week but are about even with the early-October level of US$1,500/FEU.

Rates to the East Coast decreased 4% and are 5% lower than at the start of the month.

In addition to significant blanked sailings, THE Alliance also announced this week that they will suspend one East Coast service starting in mid-November until further notice.

Levine said Asia - N. Europe rates remained below US$1,000/FEU last week.

Meanwhile, major European ports reported lower Q3 volumes than last year, with overall Asia - North Europe volumes falling in August after climbing the previous two months.

"Some analysts project year-on-year growth for the trade lane in Q4, but rates are likely to be much lower than last year, pointing to ongoing struggles with overcapacity," the Freightos head of research said.

He added that more carriers have also announced Asia - North Europe GRIs planned for November to try and push rates up to profitable levels.

"Like on the transpacific, carriers are suspending Asia - North Europe services alongside slow-steaming and blanked sailings in the hopes of bringing capacity in line with demand," Levine said.

But he noted that industry-wide, ships with a total capacity of more than a million TEU are already idled, and some analysts are predicting that capacity growth will outstrip volume growth at least through 2024.

"These trends mean carriers will face the continued challenge of aligning supply with demand, downward pressure on rates and possible losses next year and beyond," Levine added.

The report said based on Freightos Baltic Index, ocean rates for Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 3% to US$1,499/FEU; Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 4% to US$2,141/FEU; while Asia-North Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 3% to US$978/FEU.

For the period, Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 5% to US$1,400/FEU.