Worldwide air cargo demand was up by 13% in the first two months of this year, compared with the equivalent period last year, with demand continuing to surge from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins and tonnages recovering from the normal Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonal dip, according to a new WorldACD analysis.
Preliminary figures for February indicate that air cargo tonnages were up 8%, year on year (YoY), although correcting for the extra day in February this year, the first 28 days of February were still up by 4% compared with February 2023, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data.
The air cargo market data provider noted that this follows 17% higher tonnages in January, YoY, based on revised figures from WorldACD.
However, the variation in the timing of LNY each year – coming three weeks later this year on February 10, compared with January 22 last year – tends to make single-month comparisons complicated in the first two months, with combined two-month comparisons usually more meaningful.
Nonetheless, WorldACD said combined figures for January and February 2024 show a 13% increase in tonnages this year compared with the equivalent two-month period last year, or 11% if the extra leap-year day is excluded.
"Many of the patterns so far this year are similar to those of last year, although delayed by three weeks because of the later LNY, and with demand somewhat stronger this year than in the equivalent weeks last year," the statement said.
It added that, like 2023, three weeks from LNY, demand has recovered more or less from the post-LNY dip, including the key Asia Pacific origin region.
"As we begin to move clear of the complications of New Year, LNY, and Valentine's Day, year-on-year comparisons become more meaningful again and particularly highlight one big change this year compared with this time last year," WorldACD said.
It noted that tonnages from the origin region Middle East & South Asia (MESA) remain up significantly, YoY, in weeks 8 and 9 (up 22%), YoY, as key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs continue to record a surge in tonnages, linked to the disruptions to container shipping in the Red Sea.
Compared with the previous two weeks, tonnages ex-MESA are up by 3%, although week-on-week (WoW), there is a slight softening in chargeable weight that could be explained by a post-LNY (relative) weakening of air cargo demand.
WorldACD said that given the current worsening situation in the Red Sea, it is likely that this trend – of elevated demand for Asia-Europe sea-air services and tonnages ex-MESA – will continue to some extent.
Asia-Europe sea-air hubs such as Dubai, Colombo, and Bangkok have, in recent weeks, experienced exceptionally high air cargo demand.
The report said Dubai-Europe air cargo traffic in week 9 remains at more than double (up 154%) its level this time last year. However, week-on-week (WoW) tonnages in week 9 are 23% below their level in week 8, suggesting a possible softening in demand.
Colombo-Europe demand shows a similar pattern, with tonnages in week 9 around 35% up YoY but well down on the 80% figures of the previous three weeks.
Bangkok-Europe patterns are slightly different, with tonnages in week 9 up 32%, YoY, and holding firm (up 2%) against those of the previous week.
The report said globally, average rates of US$2.27 per kilo in week 9 are 16% below their levels this time last year, with rates ex-Europe and ex-North America down by 29% and 20%, respectively, and prices ex-Asia down by -12%, while rates ex-MESA are up by 13%, YoY – the only origin region to record increased pricing.
"Average global rates remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (up 27% compared to February 2019)," WorldACD said.
It added that overall worldwide air cargo capacity remains significantly up on last year's levels (up 9%), most notably ex-Asia Pacific (up 14%) and ex-Central & South America (up 14%).