A new report from DHL predicts a "chaotic start" for container shipping in 2025 due to ongoing economic and supply chain issues, further complicated by a rush to import goods into the U.S. before the new Trump administration takes office.

The latest DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Report said ocean freight market demand remains healthy until the Lunar New Year, driven by early Lunar New Year and anticipated policy changes in the US.

China's exports also exceed forecasts as factories accelerate production to meet demand ahead of potential trade adjustments.

"We are seeing steady demand, though the market is reacting more slowly than many were expecting given the disruption on the radar. If the typical seasonal trend holds, we are expecting a slight bump up toward December and January," said Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.

The DHL report noted that some container lines have reported full bookings from Asia into the Americas, likely due to shippers adjusting schedules in response to the new tariff regime under the incoming Trump administration.

Despite the rush to bring forward US imports, trans-Pacific freight rates have shown slight decreases.

It added that most trans-Pacific cargo moves under long-term contracts and carriers have also been adding capacity. 

In terms of demand outlook, DHL said China's exports exceed forecasts as factories anticipate US tariffs.

"Underlying inflation trends remain favourable, with subzero core goods inflation and decreasing services inflation in the G5 economies."

"Demand remains healthy at least until the Lunar New Year driven by early Lunar New Year and potential implementation of new US tariffs," DHL added.

In terms of capacity, the DHL report noted disruptions in services expected as shipping alliances are shifting to their new set up mainly on East-West trades.

Idle fleet of containerships reached an all-time low of less than 1% in 2024.

Meanwhile, larger ships of 12,500+ have shown almost no idling.

The DHL report said annual dry container production could reach 7.3 million TEU, surpassing previous years with a 6.5% YoY growth. 

In terms of freight rates, it noted that rates remain much higher than the same time last year (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index was up year-on-year by 255% to Euro, up 245% intra Asia, 147% to USWC, 128% to Oceania, and up 96% to South America).

Despite the rush to bring forward US imports due to potential new tariffs, Transpacific freight rates have shown slight decreases.

"Several carriers announced new rates starting Dec 1st in anticipation of pre-CNY rush," the DHL report said.