Boeing said demand for freighters will remain strong, even as capacity from passenger’s belly holds increases, and that the share of cargo transported on the main deck is expected to surpass that carried in the bellies.
Speaking at the TIACA Air Cargo Forum 2024 in Miami, Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing, said the current share of total cargo traffic carried by dedicated freighters is “slightly above” pre-pandemic levels.
“This is an important testament to the value of the main deck in terms of the composition of air traffic and how that traffic is carried,” he said.
Boeing’s 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast indicated that freighter capacity would outpace bellyhold capacity in the coming years.
The American planemaker anticipates 55% of cargo will be transported by dedicated freighters and 45% by passenger aircraft, compared to the pre-pandemic split, which was closer to 50%.
Hulst said the increased freighter share is partly due to the slow restart of passenger operations between China and the U.S. Additionally, passenger operations are unable to serve certain cargo markets because of limited passenger routes.
At the height of the Covid-19 pandemic between 2019 and 2022, all-cargo carriers transported as much as 70% of air freight as passenger services were widely suspended to stem the spread of the coronavirus.
In its latest market forecast, Boeing said the global air cargo fleet will rise to 3,900 airplanes by 2043, a two-thirds increase from the 2,340 cargo planes predicted in 2023. This will be driven by demand in high-growth Asian markets.
“There will be many drivers for continued freighter demand over the next 20 years, including expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and ecommerce,” Hulst said. He also cautioned about a potential shortage of large widebody freighters in the latter half of the 20-year forecast period, although the narrowbody and medium widebody types will remain “fairly balanced.”
Hulst noted an increasing demand for large widebody aircraft, fueled by ongoing expansion in the long-haul general cargo sector. Meanwhile, the industry is experiencing a transitional phase as new freighter models, including the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F, are set to debut.
“The large end of the market is where the biggest potential undersupply is,” he told the forum.
“We have seen a year and a half of sustained growth in the general cargo long haul market and this year, there have been 34 orders and rising for the 777 freighter, which means that we will probably see an undersupply in the large freighter market for the back half of the decade,” he added.
In terms of cargo growth, Boeing is forecasting a robust air freight market that exceeds pre-pandemic levels in the long-term growth. In its latest market forecast, Boeing said air cargo traffic will increase by an average of 4% per year through 2043.
“As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo's sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend,” Hulst said.
The report said East and South Asian markets will see the highest traffic growth per year, driven by expanding economies and consumer demand. Demand will also get a boost from ecommerce and geographically shifting supply chains.
Boeing projects that express carriers will handle a quarter of the air cargo market, increasing from the current 18%.
“Express carriers are poised to grow faster than the industry average due to an increasing role in ecommerce distribution and the expansion of express networks in emerging markets,” the forecast said.
Boeing projects 2,845 freighter deliveries from 2024 to 2043, with 1,005 expected from production and 1,840 from conversions.
It expects to deliver 1,250 standard-body freighters, 785 medium widebodies, and 810 large widebodies between 2024 and 2043.
By Charlee C. Delavin
Asia Cargo News | Miami
