Global air cargo spot prices are still over 20% higher than they were a year ago, even with the typical seasonal drop in early January, according to the latest figures and analysis from WorldACD.

The air cargo market data provider said relatively high rates from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins continued to prop up average prices in the second week of 2025, from January 6 to 12.

It noted that although average worldwide spot rates dipped 3% compared with the previous week (WoW), to US$2.76 per kilo, they are still 22% higher on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

Rates from MESA origins, which were highly elevated throughout 2024 due to the disruptions to ocean freight supply chains in that region, have fallen somewhat in the last three months and have continued to slide in 2025.

WorldACD said full-market average rates from MESA in weeks 1 and 2 dropped by a further 4%, compared with the previous 2 weeks (2Wo2W), although they are still up 36% YoY.

Average spot rates from MESA to Europe of US$2.60 per kilo are still up 65% YoY. 

[Source: WorldACD]

Meanwhile, the analysis noted that Bangladesh to Europe spot rates, which rose above US$5 per kilo in September, have fallen consistently, week by week, for the last 10 weeks, from US$4.92 per kilo in week 45, to US$3.25 in week 2 this year — although still 35% higher, compared to the same period a year ago.

"Nevertheless, air cargo rates and demand from MESA origins are likely to remain elevated for the time being," WorldACD said.

"Shipping sources such as Lloyd's List report that the current fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza has not altered the current threat assessment for shipping in the Red Sea, and shipping lines will not be prepared to disrupt global supply chains by re-routing until there is hard evidence the Houthi threat has diminished," the report added.