Global freight markets are undergoing sharp shifts, with air cargo demand surging and ocean trade routes realigning as tariffs and port fees kick in, according to the latest DHL Air Freight Market Update Report for September 2025 and Ocean Freight Market Update Report for October 2025.
DHL Global Forwarding sees continued strength in the global economy despite mounting headwinds. "We are still seeing a resilient global economy, even with ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainties,” said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
"Growth remains positive, but risks from inflation, trade tensions and energy policy shifts continue to shape the outlook."
Asia-origin volumes are powering air cargo market growth, as global demand for air freight rose about 6% in the first seven months of the year, driven by intra-Asia and Asia–Europe routes, with Asia–U.S. trade lagging behind.
Notably, there was a shift from sea to air for high-value goods as shippers tried to sidestep tariff risk, fueling stronger growth on Asia-Europe, intra-Asia, Asia-Africa, and Asia- Middle East lanes.
"South-East Asia and India are the clear winners in global airfreight this year, in part a result of the ongoing China Plus X shift in manufacturing," said Patrick Bongers, global head, Air Freight Business Development, DHL Global Forwarding.
Meanwhile, global air cargo capacity has been softening since May 2025, due to double-digit reductions in freighter availability.
Despite some relief from passenger bellyhold capacity, it was not enough to offset the decline or drive overall growth, resulting in higher average rates.
On the Ocean Freight front, container shipping continues to adjust to shifting trade patterns, with emerging markets driving growth despite tariffs, congestion, and new U.S. port fees.
Containerized import levels in the first eight months of 2025 have grown across most regions except North America, as Sub-Saharan Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Middle East, and South and Central America recorded year-to-date import increases. On the export side, the Far East, the Indian Subcontinent, and the Middle East posted the largest year-to-date gains, up 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively.
The DHL report Despite healthy demand, geopolitical tensions, vessel rerouting away from the Suez Canal, and evolving U.S. trade policies have weighed on container shipping efficiency in 2025. Congestion at key ports remains a persistent challenge, and berthing delays continue to impact liner schedule reliability, particularly in Hong Kong, China, and northern Europe, where ongoing port congestion persists.
Softening spot rates in Q3 have also led to an increase in blanked sailings, causing additional disruption for shippers. Blanked capacity has been continuously adjusted upward—from less than 5% on all trade lanes to around 15%.
DHL noted that carriers have reacted to the enforcement of U.S. port fees for Chinese-built, owned, or operated vessels calling at U.S. ports on October 14 by replacing Chinese-built vessels on trades to and from the U.S.
Most leading container lines are expected to be largely unscathed by the new port fees following vessel redeployments, with some indicating that they will not introduce surcharges.
"While new port fees and regulatory measures are creating short-term uncertainty, the market has shown time and again that it can adapt," said Bjoern Schoon, senior vice president, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
"Trade will continue to find efficient pathways, even as global shipping patterns evolve."
The DHL Air Freight and Ocean Freight Market Update Reports are monthly reports by DHL Global Forwarding that track and analyze the latest developments in the global air and ocean freight market.
