UPS is securing alternative lift from partner airlines to cover holiday peak season demand after the continued grounding of its MD‑11 freighter.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered inspections of MD‑11 aircraft following the Nov. 4 crash of UPS Flight 2976 in Louisville, Kentucky, which killed 14 people. UPS operates 26 MD‑11s, about 9% of its fleet.

Analysts say the grounding has tightened global air cargo supply, but UPS has implemented contingency measures including wet‑lease contracts with carriers such as Cargojet and Amerijet, consolidating flight schedules, and expanding its ground network, according to various reports.

Stifel analysts noted the impact on holiday shipping is expected to be "minimal," as UPS has secured additional aircraft and adjusted operations.

Still, industry observers warn that prolonged inspections could extend into 2026, keeping pressure on capacity.

NTSB findings on the crash

The Nov. 4 accident involved UPS Flight 2976, a McDonnell Douglas MD‑11F departing Louisville for Honolulu.

According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) preliminary report, the aircraft's left engine and pylon separated from the wing during takeoff, vaulting over the fuselage before igniting a fire. The crash killed all three crew members and 11 people on the ground, with 23 others injured.

Investigators found fatigue cracks in the aft mount lug of the left pylon, leading to catastrophic structural failure. The FAA subsequently issued an emergency directive grounding MD‑11 and related DC‑10 aircraft for inspection.

The NTSB noted parallels to the 1979 DC‑10 disaster in Chicago, where similar pylon failures caused an engine separation. While the final report is pending, the preliminary findings point to metal fatigue and pylon failure as the immediate cause of the crash.

Earlier this week, the TAC Index, which monitors global air freight rates, reported that the Baltic Air Freight Index rose more than 4% in the week ending Nov. 17. The index was also up 2.4% compared with the same week last year.

"While it is normal for rates to rise ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US and Christmas in Europe, sources suggested they had been given an added boost after the grounding of all MD‑11 freighters following a fatal crash in Louisville earlier this month," the TAC Index said in a note.

Aside from UPS, FedEx has also grounded its fleets of McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighters, which makes 5% of its fleets, following the deadly crash. 

"Minimal" air cargo impact

Analysts at Stifel said the grounding of UPS’s MD‑11 freighters is expected to have only a "minimal" operational and financial impact.

"Importantly, aircraft will be back flying once approved individually, rather than the entire MD-11 fleet awaiting a singular rulingm, and the FAA can effectively deputize outside parties to efffectuate the inspections, which have already begun, according to management," Stifel analysts wrote.