Global trade is on course to exceed US$35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's (UNCTAD) final Global Trade Update of the year. The new data confirm that trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed momentum.

Between July and September, global trade grew 2.5% compared with the previous three months. Goods rose nearly 2%, services 4%.

Growth is expected to continue in the year's final quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.

UNCTAD, a UN body established to help developing countries integrate more fairly into the global economy, and promoting trade, said if projections hold, goods would add about US$1.5 trillion to this year's total and services US$750 billion, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase.

A key shift is unfolding on prices. After two quarters in which trade values rose partly because goods became more expensive, prices are now expected to drop. As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes - the actual quantity of goods shipped - rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases.