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BIMCO: RETURN TO SUEZ CANAL ROUTINGS LOOMS LARGE OVER MARKET OUTLOOK
December 18, 2025
BIMCO, one of the largest of the international shipping associations representing shipowners, expects global shipping conditions in 2026 to mirror those of this year, though it sees a modest slowdown ahead in 2027.
Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, forecasts ship demand growth of 2.5%-3.5% in both 2026 and 2027 while supply is estimated to grow 3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
"Assuming a significant increase in recycling of older ships and a reduction in average sailing speeds, we forecast that average market conditions in 2026 will be like those in 2025 but 2027 could see slightly weaker market conditions," he said in the recently released "Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook" from BIMCO.
BIMCO noted, however, that the return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings in the not-too-distant future, "seems increasingly likely," which could result in a 10% reduction in ship demand.
It added that starting in January, CMA CGM's INDAMEX service will fully return to the Suez Canal while the MEX service will use the Suez Canal on the back-haul leg from Europe to Asia.
"If these changes are successful, other carriers may slowly begin to change services back to the Suez Canal," BIMCO said.
Meanwhile, North American import container volumes are expected to contract 3% in 2025.
Rasmussen said BIMCO also expect to see negative growth rates in the first half of 2026 before the market returns to growth in the second half of the year. We forecast that North America import container volumes will grow 2% during both 2026 and 2027.
"However, up to 70% of US economic growth in 2025 may be driven by AI investments and the wealth effects of AI share price increases. Should the AI bubble burst, it could significantly hurt the US economy with spillover consequences for the world economy and container ship demand growth," he added.
The BIMCO chief shipping analyst noted that it has included recycling of 750k TEU capacity in its supply forecast for 2026-2027.
"We estimate that a recycling overhang of 1.8 million TEU exists due to recycling during the past five years reaching only 272k TEU. If recycling ends lower than our forecast, we expect that the shortfall will add to oversupply of capacity in the market," it said.
Rasmussen noted that while the BIMCO forecast indicates mostly stable market conditions, several uncertainties remain.
"In particular, the possibility of a return to Suez Canal routings looms large over the market outlook. As other supply and demand risks also exist, the coming two years could thus end more eventful than our headline forecast suggests," he said.
