Global air cargo demand ended a turbulent 2025 on a stronger note, with December volumes up 6% year on year, but the sluggish e‑commerce flows from China are tempering optimism for airlines and forwarders that depend on online retail.
Analysts from Xeneta said better-than-expected volumes over the last quarter of the year helped air cargo demand record 4% growth in chargeable weight year-on-year for 2025, reflecting many shippers' willingness to shift away from other modes to the speed and reliability of air cargo during times of disruption and economic uncertainty.
Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, noted that 2025 had "something for everyone," with service providers benefitting from higher volumes than expected earlier in the year, and shippers gaining from lower rates in the second half of the year.
More modest outlook for 2026
"Having predicted up to 4% market demand growth for 2025, Xeneta sees a more cautious outlook for 2026, forecasting a slightly more modest 2-3% rise in volumes this year," van de Wouw said.
After double-digit (+11%) growth in 2024 and market resilience seen in 2025, van de Wouw noted that there might be "a price to pay" for air cargo volumes this year.
"Everybody had some doom and gloom about 2025 when the US started announcing tariffs, but the uncertainty helped airfreight. The market held up better than many expected as trade patterns shifted – buffeted by the return of Trump tariffs and de minimis bans for ecommerce shipments in the US, and the fading boost from Red Sea-related oceanfreight diversions," van de Wouw said.
"But with many questions remaining over trade, and geopolitical tension adding a further layer of uncertainty, I personally think something has to give in 2026 from a volume perspective – and that means there's going to be more in it for shippers in terms of lower rates," he added.
Despite demand growth towards the end of last year, average global airfreight rates have been below their 2024 levels in recent months. This trend continued in December as, once again, demand outpaced the +5% growth in supply.
Global airfreight rates fell 4% year-on-year to average US$2.83 per kg, slightly less pronounced than November's 5% decline, suggesting the slide may be easing, but not reversing.
Less buoyant signals for ecommerce
Meanwhile, Xeneta says the outlook will hinge heavily on e‑commerce trends, with shippers in China, Europe, and other key markets already facing higher delivery costs.
"One of the tailwinds for air cargo demand growth in 2025 came from investment linked to the development of artificial intelligence solutions. This supported flows of high-value goods and is expected to continue. In contrast, the less buoyant forward-looking signals for ecommerce, particularly Chinese cross-border e-commerce exports, are worrying," van de Wouw said.
He noted that Chinese customs data shows low-value and ecommerce exports in November rose by just 1% year-on-year, after flatlining in October.
Exports to the U.S. represented the brunt of this decline, plunging 52% year-on-year in November after a corresponding 51% fall in October, the steepest declines on record.
Prior to the de minimis ban imposed by the U.S. government, China–U.S. e-commerce accounted for roughly 3% of global air cargo volumes.
China–EU ecommerce volumes continued to grow, but less briskly, expanding 29% in November. This is down from the 47% recorded in October.
"Policy is now biting from China as well," van de Wouw said, noting that China's State Council has introduced new rules on tax information reporting by online platforms.
From October 2025, marketplaces such as Amazon, Temu, and eBay must report tax-relevant data on merchants and individual service providers to improve transparency and compliance — with non-compliance to be costly, with exporters facing fines up to CNY 100,000 (about US$14,000) if they miss the data deadline or report incorrectly.
In severe cases, penalties can reach CNY 500,000 (around US$71,000) and include business suspension pending rectification.
Xeneta also pointed out to a "more regulated" landscape for ecommerce in 2026.
van de Wouw said international cross-border ecommerce will face a more regulated landscape across many fronts with the U.S. and the EU leading the charge, but countries including Japan and Thailand also discussing or announcing new rules commencing in fiscal 2026.
In December, for example, the EU agreed to impose a fixed customs duty of €3 on small parcels valued below €150 from July 1, 2026, aiming to close loopholes used by low-value shipments — 91% of which originate in China.
Consequently, ecommerce volumes are likely to grow at a slower pace in 2026, but still faster than the general airfreight market, as platforms continue to respond to policy changes and shifting trade flows.
"China's cross-border ecommerce volumes were flat in October and November. If we see a third consecutive month of lower ecommerce growth out of China, that is a big signal – while duties imposed by other countries may present more unwelcome news for the air cargo market going forward," van de Wouw said.
"Air cargo's ecommerce volumes are also likely to be impacted by declining consumer purchasing power as they face higher prices for more essential everyday items, making consumers more mindful of how they spend their money," he added.
Spot rates continue to decline
Meanwhile, Xeneta noted that on the main corridors, December spot rates mostly extended their year-on-year decline. The sharpest fall (-13%) came on the transatlantic westbound lane, from Europe to North America. Demand slipped 2% from a year earlier, yet month-on-month, spot rates jumped 17%, the quickest increase among the major corridors, but still below the same period of 2024.
Southeast Asia-related lanes posted the next largest year-on-year drops. Spot rates from the region to Europe and North America fell by 11% and 6% respectively year-on-year as capacity expanded. Even so, the report noted that rates rose strongly month-on-month, up 6% to Europe and 13% to North America, outperforming last year's seasonal pattern.
Northeast Asia was steadier. Air spot rates to Europe and North America fell by around 5% year-on-year and rose by approximately 5% month-on-month. Mainland China stood out for its relative balance as spot rates from China to Europe and North America were just -1% below December 2024 levels.
Contracting patterns also shifted at the end of 2025, with forwarders leaning heavily on short‑term deals. Nearly half of their volumes were bought on spot contracts valid for up to a month, a habit that has persisted since the pandemic.
Shippers likewise pulled back from longer commitments. One‑year contracts made up just 24% of new agreements in Q4—down 20 points from Q3—as buyers avoided locking in peak‑season rates and bet on further declines. Even so, the share was still 8 points higher than a year earlier.
Xeneta said the key question for 2026 is whether longer‑term contracts rebound toward Q1 2025 levels or whether shippers continue to mirror the industry’s short‑term mindset.
Market fundamentals point downwards
The volatile nature of trade and world affairs, van de Wouw said, continues to mean that any sign of crisis this year may yet again help airfreight, but, until then, he sees the market fundamentals pointing downwards in 2026.
"When I look at the biggest risks this year, right now I would say it's more likely we will see something that will put a stopper on the level of airfreight growth we have seen in the last two years," he said.
"Overall, the market has been relatively stable, but we are entering a phase when shippers will be looking for better rates and demand may deteriorate in the first quarter of the year," the Xeneta chief airfreight officer added.
