Transpacific ocean freight rates have surged 22% ahead of Lunar New Year as shippers move cargo earlier than usual to avoid seasonal bottlenecks. The increase comes amid a broader front‑loading trend across major east–west trades, driven by extended transit times and ongoing network disruptions, according to new analysis from Sea‑Intelligence.

In its latest Sunday Spotlight, Sea‑Intelligence reviewed capacity deployment in the 10 weeks leading up to Chinese New Year 2026 and found that carriers and shippers are operating well outside historical patterns.

CEO Alan Murphy said the data shows "a significant deviation from normal pre‑CNY behavior," with shippers accelerating bookings to offset delays linked to longer routings around Africa.

While the sharpest structural changes are visible on Asia–Europe corridors, the Transpacific trades are showing their own volatility.

Asia–North America West Coast capacity has swung sharply in recent weeks, culminating in a late‑season surge that aligns with the 22% rate jump.

The East Coast trade, meanwhile, is holding a consistently elevated capacity floor, with volumes remaining about 25% above baseline levels through the start of the holiday period.

Sea‑Intelligence's analysis shows the front‑loading trend is most pronounced on Asia–Europe routes.

On Asia–North Europe, deployed capacity rises from a 2026 baseline of 282,947 TEU to a peak of 421,825 TEU six weeks before the holiday — a 49.1% increase that is roughly four times the historical pre‑CNY ramp‑up. Even after adjusting for vessel delays, the capacity index remains significantly above normal levels through Week –4.

A similar pattern is visible on the Asia–Mediterranean trade, which records the steepest relative increase of all major lanes, rising 62% in just five weeks to reach 278,172 TEU.

Murphy said the early surge reflects a "structural adaptation" to current network conditions. With longer transit times and fewer schedule buffers, shippers are pushing cargo into the system earlier to ensure inventory arrives before the post‑CNY capacity withdrawal.