Global air cargo demand and prices have broadly stabilized in the third full week of 2026 after completing their recovery from the annual end-of-year slump, ahead of a brief expected further uplift in demand from Asia Pacific origins prior to the Lunar New Year (LNY) period in the second half of February, according to the latest analysis from WorldACD Market Data.

The air cargo market data provider noted that demand from flower shipments has also been building ahead of Valentine's Day on February 14, particularly from Central & South America (CSA) and Kenya, and there have been some severe weather-related disruptions in traffic to and from North America, and further flight disruptions in parts of the Middle East due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran.

Worldwide chargeable weight rose by 1% in week 4 (January 19-25), driven mainly by a further 2% week‑on‑week increase in volumes from Asia Pacific and a 10% rise from Central & South America. These gains were partly offset by a 9% decline from North America, where severe weather disrupted airports and flights.

The winter storm led to thousands of cancellations across North America and affected large parts of the US.

WorldACD said cargo tonnages dropped sharply, ranging from 14% in the US Midwest to 17% in the Northeast, 15% in western Canada, and 19% in the US South, based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions captured in WorldACD's data.

Worldwide tonnages in week 4 remained above last year’s levels, up 3% year on year. However, that increase has not kept pace with the 6% rise in capacity, which continues to put downward pressure on rates on a YoY basis (-1%).

Compared with the previous week, average global rates are edging up again after bottoming out in week 2, rising a further 2% WoW to US$2.43 per kilo. The pace of that recovery is slightly slower than last year, likely reflecting the +6% YoY rebound in capacity.

Nevertheless, total worldwide tonnages in week 4 have continued to exceed their equivalent levels a year ago, standing 3% up, year on year (YoY), although that demand growth has failed to match a YoY capacity increase of 6%, placing downwards pressure on rates — at least on a YoY basis (-1%, YoY).

Compared with the previous week, average global rates are slowly picking up again after bottoming out in week 2, edging up by a further 2%, WoW, to US$2.43 per kilo – although that WoW recovery in rates is slightly slower than last year, most likely due to the aforementioned 6% YoY capacity rebound.

Asia Pacific to US and Europe volumes plateau

Following two weeks of strong WoW tonnage recovery for Asia Pacific to U.S. and Europe markets, overall WoW growth came to a halt in week 4 with flat volumes for both trade lanes, WoW.

Compared with last year, volumes to the U.S. are now even slightly below last year (-1%), although volumes to Europe are still up 7%, YoY.

Meanwhile, WorldACD said the rate dynamics for both markets are very similar, when averaged across the whole Asia Pacific region, with spot rates slightly up on a WoW basis (by 2% to the US and by 3% to Europe), while both are 9% lower compared with the same period last year.

"Within those average spot rate figures, the biggest WoW rises in week 4 were from China origins, where spot rates to the US rose by 6%, WoW, to US$4.02 per kilo, and to Europe they rose by 7% to US$3.80 per kilo," the air cargo market data provider said.

"Forwarders report that from southern China, demand is picking up as the market moves into the pre-Lunar New Year peak period, while capacity continues to tighten, but from northern China there are few signs currently of a pre-LNY peak," it added.

Lunar New Year, which falls between late January and mid‑February, brings week‑long factory and warehouse closures across much of Asia. Exporters typically rush shipments before the break, followed by a sharp dip in production and reduced trucking and handling capacity once the holiday begins. This often results in lower cargo volumes and temporary slowdowns until operations resume.

Meanwhile, WorldACD said the significant flight cancellations due to severe winter storms in the U.S. and Canada have added to space constraints from some Asia Pacific markets to certain U.S. destinations, placing upwards pressure on rates from markets such as southern China, Vietnam and Taiwan.

The constraints on capacity, combined with possible backlogs and building demand ahead of LNY on February 17, is likely to add to upwards pressure on spot rates in week 5 and beyond, on Asia Pacific to U.S. lanes.

It noted that one origin region recording significant YoY tonnage growth since last July is the Middle East & South Asia (MESA), and that has continued into 2026, including in week 4, in which ex-MESA tonnages were up by 10%, YoY, including a 11% rise to the US and 7% increase to European markets.

Despite higher tariffs imposed on India by the U.S. in the second half of 2025, the biggest origin market within that region, India, recorded strong YoY growth in tonnages to the US in the final two months of 2025, and that growth has continued into January, including a 15% YoY increase in week 4.