Airfreight rates jumped sharply in the first full week of the US‑Israeli war on Iran, as widespread airspace closures and airport shutdowns choked capacity and disrupted traffic far beyond the Middle East.

Data released by WorldACD confirmed early indications that the conflict has triggered a severe squeeze on global lift, forcing carriers into costly reroutings and setting off price surges that are expected to intensify amid rising fuel and war‑risk surcharges — a combination that threatens to complicate inflation‑control efforts and further erode consumer confidence.

Global airfreight traffic fell sharply in the week ending March 8, with chargeable weight down 4% week on week and 12% below the same period last year, according to the latest WorldACD Market Data. With the exception of North America (+3%) and Asia Pacific (+5%), every major region recorded declines. The steepest drop came from Middle East & South Asia origins, where volumes plunged 36%, followed by Africa (-23%), Europe (-7%), and Central & South America (-2%), underscoring how the conflict’s shockwaves have rippled far beyond the immediate region.

Severe impact in the Middle East

Tonnage originating from MESA fell 36% from week 9, closely mirroring the 42% drop in available capacity. The Gulf region was hit hardest, with outbound volumes plunging 62% week on week against a 70% capacity decline, while inbound chargeable weight fell 47%.

Commercial flight operations in Dubai were suspended on 7 March following a drone strike and later restored, though only partially. Flows out of Dubai to the US and Europe slumped 82% and 38% WoW, respectively. Carriers and forwarders have sought to ease the strain by shifting traffic to alternative regional gateways such as Saudi Arabia, adding charter capacity, and increasing trucking links.

Chargeable weight from the Gulf to Asia Pacific dropped 59% WoW amid a 67% capacity reduction, while volumes in the opposite direction fell 47%. The conflict also weighed heavily on South Asia flows. Outbound volumes from India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to Europe declined 24%, 42% and 45% WoW, respectively, while tonnages to the US market fell 13%, 32% and 50%, underscoring the breadth of the disruption across key export corridors.

Flows between Asia and Europe reroute

Capacity to and from the Gulf, the Levant and South Asia combined fell by almost half from the previous week, but lift increased sharply on direct Asia–Europe routes. Capacity on Asia Pacific–Europe lanes rose 20%, and South Asia–Europe was up 13%, while capacity in the opposite direction increased 26% and 18%, largely due to more direct freighter operations.

Tonnage from Asia Pacific to Europe rose 4% week on week, led by 17% growth from Vietnam and 14% from China as post‑Lunar New Year activity picked up. Aside from Taiwan, which posted a 4% increase, most other Asia Pacific origins saw lower volumes to Europe.

Chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to North America jumped 13% week on week, driven by strong gains from China/Hong Kong (+31%), Vietnam (+25%) and Singapore (+7%). Year‑on‑year comparisons remain distorted by last year’s later post‑LNY recovery and front‑loading by US importers; overall volumes were 4% lower than a year ago, including -15% from China and -22% from Hong Kong.

Analysts say it is unclear whether the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling will trigger a short‑term rush in exports from China and Vietnam, though most expect only a modest uptick at best.

While some Asia–Europe flows are being rerouted, similar adjustments have not yet materialized to the same extent on Africa–Europe lanes, where Gulf‑based carriers play a central role. As a result, the 23% week‑on‑week drop in African tonnage is partly explained by an 18% decline on Africa–Europe traffic, driven largely by East Africa, where volumes fell 23%.

Rates on the rise

The temporary loss of a large share of capacity — driven mainly by the grounding of Gulf‑based carriers — pushed airfreight rates sharply higher. The average global rate rose 6% week on week to $2.40, now 3% above last year’s level. Worldwide spot rates jumped 10% WoW and 13% YoY, while global contract rates increased 3% WoW but remained 2% lower than a year ago.

Central & South America (‑7%) was the only origin region to record a weekly decline. Rates from North America, Africa, Europe and Asia Pacific all rose in single digits, while pricing from MESA surged 28% WoW and 20% YoY. The steepest increases were on MESA–Europe lanes, where rates climbed 57% WoW, including spikes of 93% out of Sri Lanka and 77% from the UAE. Pricing from India rose 50%, and Bangladesh 41%. Year‑on‑year, rates on these corridors were up between 21% (Bangladesh) and 89% (UAE). MESA–US rates increased 22% WoW and 17% YoY, led by a 59% jump out of the UAE and 24% from India.

The reduced role of the Middle East as a transit hub also pushed up pricing from Asia Pacific to Europe. Spot rates rose 10% WoW after slipping the previous week. With the exception of Hong Kong (‑1%), all major Asian origins saw week‑on‑week increases, led by Vietnam (+42%), Indonesia (+36%) and Singapore (+31%). Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US edged up 1% WoW, though they remained 6% lower YoY. Hong Kong (+16%) and Singapore (+15%) posted the strongest gains, likely supported by South Asia cargo rerouted across the Pacific. Malaysia (‑5%) and Korea (‑2%) were the only origins where transpacific pricing declined, while most other gateways saw modest single‑digit increases.

Barring a quick end of the US-Israeli war on Iran, WorldACD said pricing is set to climb further, regardless of the anticipated further recovery of Middle Eastern airline operations.

"A number of airlines have already announced fare increases in their passenger operations as a result of the sharp escalation in the price of jet fuel (+58%, WoW), and a jump in war risk insurance premiums is bound to add upward momentum to pricing," it said.