The resilience of the global air freight market is being tested once again as conflict in the Middle East places a further question mark against already low growth expectations for 2026, according to analysts from Xeneta.
The global freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform noted that historically, air freight has served as an "equalizer" during supply chain crises, notably the Covid-19 pandemic and disruptions in the Red Sea.
When ocean freight shipping faltered, air cargo stepped in to fill the gap.
"This time is different. Unlike previous shocks, the current conflict is hitting airlines and air cargo industry harder than ocean shipping amidst fears the worst may be yet to come," Xeneta said.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and mounting pressure on global supply chains, Xeneta warns that the air cargo sector is facing a uniquely severe shock unlike previous industry disruptions.
"Typically, at the start of each month, we report the global air cargo market's performance for the previous 4-5 weeks – but, right now, whether demand was down -2% or -4% in March does not concern the industry greatly if we are on the verge of a global economic crisis," Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's chief airfreight officer, said.
"There is clearly a lot of concern and unanswered questions about the market outlook, but we also see a current transparency and maturity in customer and supplier relationships, and a sense of solidarity that although the impact of the conflict is beyond their control, they will get through it together."
Cost is only one variable
As geopolitical tensions push airfreight prices higher, shippers are also weighing far more than just rising costs.
"Air freight rates are going up, and we already see evidence of the Middle East conflict reshaping global airfreight pricing, but, for shippers, cost is only one of the variables. Protecting market share and service to customers also plays an important role," van de Wouw said.
"Will the increase in fuel prices dampen demand for air freight? Not immediately, but if this conflict continues in the longer term, then definitely yes because the world would be facing a much broader economic issue," he added.
Until then, the Xeneta's chief airfreight officer expects the air freight industry will continue to find a way to transport goods. "But that will come at a cost," he said, highlighting how capacity has shifted to safer airport locations such as Muscat and Jeddah to keep air cargo supply chains moving and expects to see more such flexibility.
"Right now, we can see a lot of solidarity and trust between shippers, forwarders, and airlines to get goods moved. We see businesses respecting contracts as much as they can and sticking to what they have agreed as they wait to see what unfolds," van de Wouw said.
Hopes pinned on a fast resolution
The Xeneta analysis noted that air cargo stakeholders are pinning their hopes on a fast resolution to the current situation in the Middle East.
It said cities like Dubai and Doha occupy strategic midpoints between the Americas, Asia, and Europe, and have served as the growth engine behind the rise of super-connectors like Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways.
Now, geographic advantage has become a strategic vulnerability as hub airports have become victims of the conflict.
Xeneta said the ripple effects reach even further. An oil shock has nearly doubled jet fuel prices, squeezing carriers that are already rerouting or grounding flights due to financial pressures.
Five weeks into the conflict, air cargo capacity in the region remains roughly 30% below pre-conflict levels – and that squeeze in supply is showing up in rates.
Global air cargo spot rates in March surpassed 2025 peak-season levels, reaching US$2.86 per kilo - their highest point since December 2024.
The conflict has upended tender season, pushing shippers away from annual contracts and deeper into the spot market as rate validity shrinks and uncertainty grows. Spot‑priced volumes climbed to 52% in March, nearing pandemic levels, while routes touching the Middle East saw the sharpest spikes, with South and Southeast Asia corridors posting 50–100% weekly increases amid capacity shortages, soaring fuel costs and new war‑risk surcharges.
Xeneta said the disruption is now spilling across major global lanes, lifting Asia–North America rates by mid‑ to high‑double digits and reshaping flows on Asia–Europe routes where Middle Eastern carriers dominate. Some markets, however, are easing: Europe–North America rates fell as summer belly capacity returned.
"Airfreight demand might receive a temporary boost from ocean carriers declaring 'end of voyage' at ports outside of their intended destination, leaving shippers and forwarders to recover their supply chains, van de Wouw said, but any gains might be short-lived."
Fallout is bigger than tariffs
"Tariffs created uncertainty but the fallout here is bigger because of the cost of jet fuel, the potential energy crisis and inflation growth," Xeneta's chief airfreight officer, said. "Right now, the air cargo market is suffering from a supply issue – and this will be resolved. But, the longer this recovery takes is going to determine if it becomes a much bigger demand issue."
"Whether airfreight benefits or suffers in the longer-term is down to the length of the conflict and its outcomes," van de Wouw added.
For the record, global air cargo demand fell 3% year-on-year in March, while capacity supply was 6% lower than in March 2025.
Dynamic load factor —Xeneta's measurement of capacity utilisation based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity – rose to 65%.
