Hong Kong's air‑trade outlook strengthened notably in the second quarter, with the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) rising to its highest level since Q4 2024.
According to the latest DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) report — commissioned by DHL Express Hong Kong and compiled by the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) — the recovery was driven by strong gains in the Americas Index - possibly reflecting the temporary easing of U.S. tariff pressures - alongside robust Asian demand and a strong uplift in (re) exports.
The Overall Air Trade Index climbed 4.5 points to 37.3 in Q2 2026. The increase was underpinned by a strong rebound in (re-)exports (+6.2 points), while imports also recorded a moderate increase (+2.1 points), remaining broadly in line with the same quarter last year.
The latest reading was higher than the overall air trade index of 32.8 recorded in Q1 2026.
Most major markets recorded improvement in Q2 2026, led by strong gains in the Americas, with their index level ranking the highest among all markets. The Asia Pacific also demonstrated a growing momentum, supported by renewed momentum in (re-)exports to the Chinese Mainland and Japan. Europe was the only market to post a decline, reflecting softer import activity.
The Americas’ Index rose sharply by 9 points to 39 points, returning to the level last seen in Q4 2024. It marked the highest index among all markets during the quarter, reflecting a broad-based improvement in trade sentiment.
Asia Pacific’s index recorded the second-highest index at 38 points, representing an 8- point quarter-on-quarter increase. The Chinese Mainland’s index increased by 4 points to 34 points, supported by improvements in both (re-)exports and imports.
Japan experienced a strong rebound, with its index surging 9 points, reaching 34 points. Other Asia Pacific markets also showed a notable improvement, with the index rising 9 points to 42 points. Meanwhile, Europe’s Index declined by 3 points to 35 points, making it the only market to record a contraction in Q2 2026. The decrease was primarily attributable to a sharper drop in imports.
(Source: DHL)
Among commodities, Apparel & Clothing Accessories and Electronic Products & Parts outperformed, whereas Gifts, Toys & Houseware softened following earlier strength.
Meanwhile, in anticipation of the EU's upcoming €3 customs fee on low-value goods effective from July 1, 2026, over 90% of sellers exporting to Europe who intend to manage the impact through pricing adjustments plan to either pass on or share the additional customs cost with consumers.
Southeast Asia as alternative market
"Against a backdrop of ongoing U.S. and EU trade policy uncertainties, air traders exporting to Europe and/or Americas identified Southeast Asia (37%) as the key alternative market with strong growth potential," the report said.
Overall commodity performance improved in Q2 2026, led by strength in Apparel & Clothing Accessories and a pronounced rebound in Electronic Products & Parts, mainly driven by increase in (re-) exports. Food & Beverage also showed signs of recovery, Gifts, Toys & Houseware saw a modest pullback.
The report noted that when expanding internationally, "complex tariff and customs clearance procedures" (23%) and "high logistics and delivery costs" (20%) emerged as the top challenges for air traders.
Nonetheless, over 85% maintained a neutral or positive outlook towards overseas expansion.
"Air trade continued its upward trajectory in Q2 2026, reaching a six-quarter high, underpinned by a strong rebound in (re-)exports and steady import recovery. The Americas and Asia Pacific led the regional improvement, while Southeast Asia is gaining traction as promising alternative market amid ongoing global trade policy shifts," said Edmond Lai, chief digital officer of HKPC.
He noted that "the resilience in product variety and the recovery in sales volume reflect traders' adaptability to evolving demand patterns."
"As the industry prepares for upcoming regulatory changes in Europe, air traders are responding with pragmatic strategies, including pricing adjustments and market diversification, to sustain growth in a complex global environment," Lai said.
The report noted that the results for this quarter have not incorporated the possible implications of recent incidents in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, which will be assessed in the subsequent readings.
The DTI analyzes the key attributes of business demands based on a survey of more than 600 Hong Kong companies that focus on in- or outbound air trading.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook, while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. The further the reading is from 50, the more positive or negative the outlook is.
